Poll predicts total victory for Labor

But Scott Morrison is committed to pulling off another "miracle win"

But Scott Morrison is committed to pulling off another "miracle win"

A change of government is on the cards if the latest poll from our monocle-wearing grandpapa, The Australian, is anything to go by.

A special poll of almost 19,000 voters suggests Labor would win government in its own right and secure a modest majority with 80 seats in parliament if the democracy sausage sizzle were held today.

Such a result would be a triumphant victory for Labor after almost ten years in opposition and flies in the face of those predicting a hung parliament - a situation where neither major party can form government in their own right.

If an election were held today, instead of on May 21, such a result would see Labor winning an estimated 12 seats giving it a majority of five seats in the House of Representatives. A party needs to win 76 seats to form government.

But before Anthony Albanese books in the removalists to move his stuff over to Kirribilli House and gives the decorators the thumbs-up to give the joint a spruce-up, there’s still 10 days left of the campaign and polls are not a crystal ball.

If anything, it reveals the size of the task ahead for Scott Morrison in the final week of the campaign, if he is going to convince undecided voters.

He has pulled off a “miracle election” win before, shocking everyone when he beat Bill Shorten in 2019. 

The poll is interesting because it suggests the Coalition would lose seats pretty consistently across the nation.

The predicted losses include:

• Four seats in Victoria 
• Two in NSW
• Two in Western Australia
• One in Queensland
• One in South Australia
• One in Tasmania 
• Another six seats were considered too close to call.

In a significant blow to the Liberal party, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg could would lose his seat of Kooyong to Independent candidate Monique Ryan.

Taking into account a margin of error in the polling, even in a worse-case scenario for Labor, 76 seats would be won.

 At the upper end of the margin of error, it could be as high as 85 seats.

For the Coalition, the lower margin of error would suggest 58 seats and the upper margin of error 68 seats.

The most likely outcome according the MRP modelling would be a Labor majority of 80 seats with the Coalition on 63, with one Greens MP and seven independents.

The four existing independents, Helen Haines, Zali Steggall, Rebekha Sharkie, and Andrew Wilkie would be returned as would Bob Katter - let one thousand blossoms bloom - in Queensland.

The YouGov MRP poll surveyed 18,923 voters across all 151 lower house seats between April 14 and May 7.

An MRP model was used during the 2017 UK general election and correctly predicted the hung parliament.