Government confirms we're behind on our Net Zero homework

So about that emissions target...

So about that emissions target...

Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen says reaching Labor’s 43% emissions reduction target will take a “substantial effort” with updated projections from the government showing Australia is on track to fall short of the ambition.

The commitment under the Paris Agreement to reduce carbon emissions by 43% by 2030 may be too audacious which is why the Albanese government needed to unveil new climate change policies to meet the targets it committed to during the election, which it then legislated in parliament a few months ago.

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In his first annual climate change statement delivered to parliament, Bowen said the Climate Change Authority is projecting Australia’s emissions will be 40% lower than 2005 levels by 2030.

This is well above the 30% projected under the policies of the former Morrison government but it falls short of the target Labor has legislated.

“The documents I am tabling today, including the advice from the Climate Change Authority, underlines just what a substantial effort this 43% target requires,” Bowen told parliament on Thursday.

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“The previous government left their projected emissions reductions by 2030 at only 30%.

“The projections I am releasing today show the actions and policies of this government so far have increased this to a projected 40%.

“That is, we’ve lifted the outlook by a third in just our first six months.

“Policies we received a mandate for, and are working on implementing, will lift our result to at least 43%.”

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— Chris Bowen (@Bowenchris) December 1, 2022

How will we get there?

Good question. No one really knows just yet, but everyone wants to.

Bowen said the Climate Change Authority had advised that to achieve the magic 43% target:

“We will need to achieve the same emissions reduction in the next eight years that has been achieved in the last 18”.

“Since 2009, Australia has decarbonised its economy at an average annual rate of 12 million tonnes of carbon a year,” he said.

“To achieve a 43% reduction by 2030, and net zero by 2050, this decarbonisation rate needs to be at least 17 million tonnes of carbon a year – a 40% increase.”

The report said there were challenges in meeting the 2030 target because of supply chain issue and labour shortages.

“The technologies for meeting the 2030 target exist, but the scale and speed of the task demand close attention to barriers like supply chain disruption, labour skills shortages, and long lead times in planning and approval of major projects,” it said.

“Large-scale renewable generation needs to be deployed at two to three times the rate of the previous decade, with accompanying energy storage, to get to 83% renewables by 2030.”