Manchester City are the EPL’s overachievers
Pep Guardiola inspired Manchester City to produce a thrilling and record-breaking season but in some areas they were overachievers.
Pep Guardiola not only inspired Manchester City to produce thrilling and record-breaking football last season, but according to analysis by statistical experts his team were also the biggest over-achievers in the English Premier League.
The analysis, which uses a complex formula to measure achievement by points won compared with a club’s wage bill, shows that Tottenham Hotspur, Burnley and Huddersfield Town were among the leading overachievers. Using the same formula, Arsenal, Southampton and the three relegated clubs were the biggest underachievers.
The results may not sit comfortably with those who believe that Guardiola has simply used City’s financial muscle to buy success, and the analysis does not include transfer spending. Yet the full performance table aids the case that a club’s achievements depend to a large extent on the manager’s ability to produce a better outcome than expected from the spending on wages.
The analysis has been carried out for The Times by Omar Chaudhuri, the head of football intelligence for 21st Club, a consultancy that works with many of Europe’s leading teams. He has devised a formula to measure success against spending on wages which takes into account the fact that the higher up the league you go the less impact is felt by spending extra money on players’ salaries.
Chaudhuri explained: “For example if Bournemouth were given £10 million to add to their wage bill, it would have a hugely material impact: they could sign two £100,000 per-week players, who would almost certainly be an upgrade on their existing players and who would probably get them quite a few extra points come the end of the season.’’
The analysis measures a club’s performance against the median club wage bill in the English Premier League — the average between the 10th and 11th-biggest spenders.
The Times
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