NRL 2023 crystal ball: Expert predictions for ladder, where every team will finish
Wayne Bennett has his toughest task yet in leading the inaugural season of the Redcliffe Dolphins. But what can we really expect from Bennett’s side? Check out all our 2023 NRL predictions
There’s less than six weeks to go until the NRL 2023 season gets underway and ahead of the Pre-Season Challenge, every team’s preparations are well underway. But which teams will be able to improve on their 2022 finish, and which are set for a drop in rankings? Our experts make their predictions on where every team will finish in 2023.
BRONCOS
Brisbane’s posse of young guns are one year wiser and the likes of Pat Carrigan, Selwyn Cobbo and Herbie Farnworth will be better for their Origin and Test breakthroughs. If Adam Reynolds and Reece Walsh stay fit, the Broncos should expect to play finals. A top-six finish would be a dream scenario.
Finish the last five years:
2022: 9th
2021: 14th
2020: Last
2019: 8th (eliminated first week of finals)
2018: 6th (eliminated first week of finals)
2023 odds
Premiership: $15
Minor premiership: $15
To make grand final: $8
Top four: $3.50
Top eight: $1.55
Most losses: $51
- Peter Badel
BULLDOGS
Undeniably the big improvers of 2023 with game-influencing inclusions of Reed Mahoney and Viliame Kikau. Their entire club-wide mentality shift towards a defensive mindset under new coach Cameron Ciraldo will also be significant. Finals should be the goal, but the concern is their lack of depth and leadership when the going gets tough. Between 9th and 12th.
Finish the last five years
2022:12th
2021: 16th
2020: 15th
2019: 12th
2018 12th
2023 odds
Premiership: $21
Minor premiership: $26
To make grand final: $10
Top four: $5
Top eight: $2.10
Most losses: $26
- David Riccio
COWBOYS
You get the feeling this Cowboys team is only just getting started. They have a great fusion of youth and experience and in Payten, the Cowboys have a coach capable of taking North Queensland to the promised land. They should be aiming for the top four in 2023 and if they stay fit, a grand-final appearance is not beyond them.
Finish the last five years
2022: 3rd (eliminated in third week of finals)
2021: 15th
2020: 14th
2019: 13th
2018: 15th
2023 odds
Premiership: $11
Minor premiership: $13
To make grand final: $5.50
Top four: $2.40
Top eight: $1.35
Most losses: $81
- Peter Badel
DOLPHINS
The Dolphins will surprise many and be a competitive team in 2023 that could finish just out of finals contention. While they lack the star power to challenge for the premiership, the Dolphins come into the NRL with a clean slate and Wayne Bennett will have them playing for each other.
2023 odds
Premiership: $67
Minor premiership: $201
To make grand final: $29
Top four: $9
Top eight: $7.50
Most losses: $2.75
- Travis Meyn
DRAGONS
The fact they have so much talent on the way up suggests the Dragons are a side that should not be counted out heading into the new year.
It certainly wouldn’t surprise to see them jag a spot in the bottom half of the eight, and if they don’t then they’ve probably underachieved.
But in saying that there’s still no denying this squad’s best football is probably a couple of years away when you factor in age and experience of some of this young talent.
Finish the last five years
2022: 10th
2021: 11th
2020: 12th
2019: 15th
2018: 7th
2023 odds
Premiership: $41
Minor premiership: $81
To make grand final: $19
Top four: $12
Top eight: $3.75
Most losses: $8
- Paul Crawley
EELS
It is going to be a tough job improving on what the Eels did last season, but you’d be a mug to write them off.
Arthur still has a pretty solid roster and most crucially outstanding players in the all-important spine positions. The key will be how Hodgson settles in at dummy half. If the Englishman aims up they should still be pushing for a top four finish — and from there anything is possible.
Finish the last five years
2022: 4th (runners-up)
2021: 6th (eliminated in second week of finals)
2020 3rd (eliminated in second week of finals)
2019 5th (eliminated in second week of finals)
2018 16th
2023 odds
Premiership: $13
Minor premiership: $15
To make grand final: $6
Top four: $3
Top eight: $1.60
Most losses: $67
- Paul Crawley
KNIGHTS
Improve they may but it is difficult to think Newcastle can play finals football. The Knights won only six matches in 2022 and would need to double that – at least – to reach the play offs. Few doubt Newcastle is heading in the right direction but finals footy might be a destination too far away in 2023. A 10th-placed finish would seem acceptable to the realists. A bad start would sap any confidence garnered during the off-season.
Finish the last five years
2022: 14th
2021: 7th (eliminated first week of finals)
2020: 7th (eliminated first week of finals)
2019: 11th
2018: 11th
2023 odds
Premiership: $51
Minor premiership: $151
To make grand final: $23
Top four: $15
Top eight: $6.75
Most losses: $6
- Dean Ritchie
PANTHERS
On the field, they’ve lost Api Koroisau and Viliame Kikau. In the coach’s box, Cameron Ciraldo and Andrew Webster. But this Panthers outfit has enough talent to become the first team since Parramatta (1981-83) to win three titles in a row. Three-straight grand finals has given this team invaluable experience. They know what it takes to win big games.
Finish the past five years
2022: 1st (premiers)
2021: 2nd (premiers)
2020: 1st (runners-up)
2019: 10th
2018: 5th (eliminated in second week of finals)
2023 odds
Premiership: $4
To make grand final: $2.25
Top four: $1.50
Top eight: $1.10
Most losses: $251
- Fatima Kdouh
RABBITOHS
The continuity of the Rabbitohs’ best line-up, which includes arguably the best spine and back row in the competition, as well as one of the best finishers the game has ever seen, ensures the club should be well in contention for a top-four spot and another shot at the grand final. Only injuries can stop them getting there.
Finish the past five years
2022: 7th (preliminary finalists)
2021: 3rd (runners-up)
2020: 6th (preliminary finalists)
2019: 3rd (preliminary finalists)
2018: 3rd (preliminary finalists)
2023 odds
Premiership: $13
Minor premiership: $10
To make grand final: $6.50
Top four: $2.75
Top eight: $1.50
Most losses: $67
- Matt Encarnacion
RAIDERS
The Raiders are set up for another premiership tilt. They seem to be having the right mix of experienced forwards in Joseph Tapine, Elliott Whitehead and Josh Papalii, combined with younger players such as Emre Guler, Hudson Young and Corey Horsburgh, who have multiple years of first grade under their belts now.
Having Jamal Fogarty available for a full season will be a huge boost.
Finish the past five years
2022: 8th (eliminated in second week of finals)
2021: 10th
2020: 5th (eliminated in third week of finals)
2019: 4th (runners-up)
2018: 10th
2023 odds
Premiership: $26
Minor premiership: $34
To make grand final: $12
Top four: $6.50
Top eight: $2.25
Most losses: $21
- Michael Carayannis
ROOSTERS
There was no shortage of support for the Roosters last year but they fell short of what was expected of them. But with the addition of Brandon Smith there can be no excuses in 2023. They need to finish top four at a bare minimum to get a pass mark. Aside from Penrith they have the strongest overall roster on paper. And while the coach looks to be under no threat, you can’t say the same for a few of the individual players.
Finish the last five years:
2022: 6th (eliminated in first week of finals)
2021: 5th: (eliminated in third week of finals)
2020: 4th (Eliminated in week two of finals)
2019: 2nd (Premiers)
2018: 1st (Premiers)
2023 odds
Premiership: $4
Minor premiership: $3.50
To make grand final: $2.25
Top four: $1.60
Top eight: $1.15
Most losses: $201
- Paul Crawley
SEA EAGLES
Manly has the roster to be a top-eight side and should at least reach the playoffs. Injuries aside, the rainbow jumper drama appears the only distraction that can derail Manly’s 2023 hopes.
The Sea Eagles have a strong spine with a big and mobile forward pack. Maybe the club lacks some depth in the outside backs but when Jake, Tom and DCE are on the field, Manly can topple any of their heavyweight opponents.
Finish the past five years
2022: 11th
2021: 4th (eliminated in preliminary final)
2020: 13th
2019: 6th (eliminated in finals week two)
2018: 15th
2023 odds
Premiership: $23
Minor premiership: $29
To make grand final: $11
Top four: $5.50
Top eight: $2.20
Most losses: $23
- Dean Ritchie
SHARKS
Under the new direction of Craig Fitzgibbon, they have shown they are a team building towards a purple period.
By finishing second after the regular season, some would argue they got there too soon. Regardless, that is the bar the Sharks have how set themselves. They should be aiming for nothing less than a top-four finish.
The Sharks must use their pain of their backdoor exit from last season’s finals to become a stronger team.
On paper, the Sharks are a youthful forward pack in 2023 – which should give them more leg speed and drive through the middle.
The keys to success will be getting more consistency out of their younger forwards in Toby Rudolf and Royce Hunt, a greater influence from Matt Moylan at the back-end of the year, and Will Kennedy improving his resilience at the back.
Finish for the past five years
2022: 2nd (eliminated in second week of finals)
2021: 9th
2020: 8th
2019: 7th
2018: 4th
2023 odds
Premiership: $11
Minor premiership: $13
To make grand final: $5.50
Top four: $2.40
Top eight: $1.35
Most losses: $81
- David Riccio
STORM
It’s hard to write off any side with the systems in place at Melbourne, and a coach like Craig Bellamy at the helm. Year after year, Bellamy and his troops manage to overcome any kind of adversity or obstacle and they find a way to remain competitive. And they will be competitive again in 2023 but a top-four finish might be too tough for the Storm.
Predicted finish: 6th
Finish the last five years
2022: 5th (eliminated in first week of finals)
2021: 1st (eliminated in third week of finals)
2020: 2nd (premiers)
2019: 1st (eliminated in third week of finals)
2018: 2nd (runners-up)
2023 odds
Premiership: $7.50
Minor premiership: $5.50
To make grand final: $3.75
Top four: $1.70
Top eight: $1.16
Most losses: $151
- Fatima Kdouh
TIGERS
The Tigers have recruited well enough to avoid back-to-back wooden spoons. How far off the bottom of the ladder they finish will be determined by how much of a winning culture can be created in a single summer. Injecting three-time premiership winner Api Koroisau, Isaiah Papali’i and John Bateman will help. So too, coaching duo Tim Sheens and Benji Marshall. But will that be enough to rid the joint of the stench of a decade of failure? Eventually yes. Immediately, it rests on how quickly Bateman and co. can drive cultural change.
Prediction: 14th
Finish the last five years
2022: Last
2021: 13th
2020: 11th
2019: 9th
2018: 9th
2023 odds
Premiership: $51
Minor premiership: $201
To make grand final: $23
Top four: $15
Top eight: $6
Most losses: $7.50
- Fatima Kdouh
TITANS
The Titans will improve after last season’s debacle and edge back into finals contention, but lack the killer instinct to be a premiership contender in 2023.
Finish the last five years
2022: 13th
2021: 8th (eliminated in first week of finals)
2020: 9th
2019: 16th
2018: 14th
2023 odds
Premiership: $41
Minor premiership: $101
To make grand final: $19
Top four: $12
Top eight: $4.25
Most losses: $7
- Travis Meyn
WARRIORS
The recruitment of Marata Niukore and Mitch Barnett fortifies what was already a solid forward pack. But there are question marks over their backline and spine, which rookie coach Andrew Webster will have to find the answers to early in the season before it slips away. An improvement is realistic, but finals might be too tough an ask.
Finish the last five years
2022: 15th
2021: 12th
2020: 10th
2019: 13th
2018: 8th
2023 odds
Premiership: $51
Minor premiership: $126
To make grand final: $23
Top four: $15
Top eight: $6
Most losses: $6.50
- Matt Encarnacion
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