Matt Williams and Ben Dorries column — ‘Bet of the year’: Huge call for Day 1 of The Championships

Matty and Benny chat about the four Group 1s on Day 1 of The Championships — the Doncaster Mile, TJ Smith Stakes, Australian Derby and the Sires. Also, what about this dreaded Sydney weather forecast?

Every Thursday, News Corp Australia’s national racing editor Matt Williams and senior racing writer Ben Dorries chat all things horse racing.

Matty and Benny are keen to play on a big day of racing.

MW: Benny, The Championships have arrived and, yet again, all eyes are on the horrible weather forecast. It seems to be a common theme that these premier autumn meetings get hit by bad weather. It must drive Racing NSW and the Australian Turf Club crazy. It’s another reminder that Mother Nature is the real boss. As a punter, it takes the gloss off an awesome day of racing. You can guarantee they’ll be racing on a Heavy 10 and a stack of roughies will get up. I hope they don’t get much rain on Saturday. With up to 150mm of rain forecast Friday and Saturday, they should consider moving the meeting to Sunday where a sunny 28C is forecast.

BD: The weather isn’t ideal, but it won’t stop punters piling in. How about some dribblers saying Craig Williams rode Mr Brightside too close in the Australian Cup. They’re the same people who said he rode him too far back in the All-Star Mile. Give me a spell. Despite pulling up with a bit of soreness, he wasn’t good enough.

MW: As we said last week, Mr Brightside was always a risk at a fast run 2000m around Flemington. I’m shocked the Hayes camp is pressing onto the Queen Elizabeth given Pride Of Jenni will be there running along in front like she always does. Hmmmm. The $210,000 for fourth or $125,000 for fifth must be too difficult to pass up? I know she just fell short last week, but gee Pride Of Jenni has added a lot to the Australian racing landscape. She’s a genuine superstar and her presence in a race is creating a lot of excitement.

Cascadian (left) runs down Pride Of Jenni in the Australian Cup.

BD: You made the big (and right) call that Pride Of Jenni and Mr Brightside would both get rolled, but she’s a ripper. She’s the one I want to be with in the Cox Plate around The Valley. In the Doncaster on Saturday, Southport Tycoon ($15) is the forgotten horse. He’s only got 49kg and if he can handle the heavy track he’s every chance of putting egg on Jamie Kah’s face, given she’s chosen to ride Another Wil. Southport Tycoon has got form around Veight and Riff Rocket, which now looks a great guide to his chances.

READ | Runner-by-runner analysis: Doncaster Mile

MW: In the conditions, the Doncaster will be more like an 1800m race, which is why Chris Waller’s duo Militarize ($15) and Kovalica ($19) are huge chances at good odds. I’ll back both and take a quinella, which would pay nicely. Both can handle heavy tracks and are carrying 54kg and 53.5kg respectively, which are winnable weights for horses of their quality. Both have drawn decent barriers and should be in striking positions at the 600m. I’ve got Another Wil going at a big price in an all-in multi, but he’ll have to be something special to win. If it was a dry track I’d just about declare him but the heavy track makes me more reserved. This is much tougher than last week. The wide gate will make things even harder but Jamie will roll forward and try and get across in the first four or five. The other jockeys will be looking for Another Wil ($3.70), and they’ll do everything in their power to try and ensure he doesn’t get it easy. He’s far too short now, and should be in the $5-$7 range.

Another Wil blitzes them in the Doncaster Prelude.

BD: The great mare Imperatriz will silence any clowns who still believe she’s not as good the Sydney way and win the TJ Smith. She only went down by a small margin to Artorius at her first try in Sydney. The heavy track won’t be an issue and, unlike I Wish I Win who is first up, she’s got the runs on the board and is fit and firing.

READ | Runner-by runner analysis: TJ Smith Stakes

MW: At their prices, I’m strongly against Imperatriz ($3.20) and I Wish I Win ($4.20). I’ve got no doubt Imperatriz is a length or two off her best this prep, and in Sydney she might be a length off that as well so I’m taking a set against her. It would go down as one of Peter Moody’s greatest training achievements if he can get I Wish I Win to win first-up, but I can’t see it happening on a heavy track when it will be more like a 1400m race. There are a lot of horses who love the heavy conditions in this race, and the two I’ll back at double-figure odds are Mazu ($17) and Bella Nipotina ($13). Both have raced well this preparation without overtaxing themselves. Mazu hasn’t won a race for nearly two years, but this race has all the hallmarks of an upset.

Artorius (right) blouses Imperatriz in the 2023 Canterbury Stakes.

BD: Ceolwulf is the bet of the year in the Australian Derby. He shapes as the superior stayer in this race. He plugged home well in the Rosehill Guineas and the 2400m will be right up his alley. Tom Kitten is well named because he’s become half a cat, and I’ll be drinking warm milk if he wins. Joe Pride is best known for training elite sprinters but he’ll claim one of Australia’s elite staying races on Saturday.

READ | Runner-by-runner analysis: Australian Derby

MW: Gee, that’s a big call for a horse which hasn’t raced on a heavy track before. Given the Derby is Race 9 it’ll be run on an absolute bog. Essendon might win a final before these three-year-olds make it to the winning post. It’s just too hard for me to bet with any confidence. Zardozi is 1/1 on a heavy track, and she gets 2kg off the boys which could prove the difference. If you held a gun to my head, she’s the one I’d be on.

Matty thinks J-Mac and Storm Boy can combine again to win the Sires.

BD: In the Sires, I really like Manaal. She was huge in the Golden Slipper from a dodgy gate, and I’d much rather back her each-way than Storm Boy or Lady Of Camelot. Jason Collett is a brilliant wet track rider.

READ | Runner-by runner analysis: Sires’ Produce Stakes

MW: None of these two-year-olds have seen a heavy track before, but I’ve got a feeling Storm Boy, with his low-to-the-ground free flowing action, will be fine. Also, his dam is named Pelican so how could he not like the wet? Out to 1400m and drawn out means J-Mac can slide across at his own pace. If he misses the start again, it won’t mean as much as what it did in the Slipper. He’s an outstanding colt. J-Mac will give the crowd high fives he’ll be that far in front with 100m to go. Finally, our sincere codolences go out to the family and loved ones of visiting jockey Stefano Cherchi who died from injuries sustained in a fall at Canberra last month. May he rest in peace.