Mick McGuane: What’s happening at Collingwood as Magpies falter on eve of finals
Jeremy Howe hasn’t been the same since returning from a broken arm, unable to find a role – but expert analyst Mick McGuane has an answer to one of Collingwood’s dilemmas.
A team that looked bulletproof midway through the season has taken some hits.
Collingwood has lost its past two matches – including a 32-point defeat to a 16th placed Hawthorn last week.
It’s also lost its best player – Nick Daicos – for six weeks to a knee injury.
However, I’m not worried whatsoever about the Magpies’ ability to contend for this year’s premiership.
They are a proud playing group who will be determined to quickly turn around this form slump – and I think they will.
WHAT’S GONE WRONG?
Collingwood is at its best when players are hunting the footy at the source.
In the first eight rounds this season when they were humming, the Magpies ranked No.1 for contested possession differential.
Since round 9, they sit 13th in the league in this important stat.
Similarly, Collingwood’s ground ball wins have dropped off a cliff to rank 17th in the competition over the past 13 weeks.
To rediscover their mojo, the Magpies must get their contest game back.
They have to challenge themselves to win contest, which allows them to gain territory and play the front-half game they desire.
We know they can do it, because we saw it in the first two months of the season.
It’s time to get after the footy again.
DAICOS DILEMMA
Mounting a premiership charge without Nick Daicos will be difficult for Collingwood, but it’s not insurmountable.
We know that Daicos has been the Magpies’ best player this season, highlighted by him ranking No.1 at the club for disposals, metres gained and score involvements.
He can cut apart opposition teams with his elite skills and decision making, which make him individually irreplaceable.
However, we’ve seen clubs cover the losses of their best players before.
It was all doom and gloom when Geelong lost Gary Ablett to the Gold Coast Suns at the end of the 2010 season, but the Cats came out and won the premiership the very next year.
Collingwood can be disappointed for Daicos in the short-term, but teammates can’t be consumed by the idea of him not being there when they return to the field on Friday night.
Every player who lines up against the Cats will have to find a little bit extra within themselves to cover the loss of Daicos.
If they can each lift just a few per cent, they can get the job done.
It’s all about the sum of the parts.
TIME TO LIFT, TOM
We were all singing Collingwood’s praises for the recruitment of Tom Mitchell a little over a month ago.
The Magpies gave up peanuts in last year’s trade period for the 2018 Brownlow Medal winner and were getting some serious bang for buck from him.
The former Hawk averaged 27 disposals, 11.7 contested possessions, 5.1 clearances and 5.6 score involvements across his first 16 games.
It was exactly what Collingwood would have hoped for as it looked to address its lack of firepower in contested ball and clearances last year.
Mitchell’s form has since fallen away, but you don’t lose your ability overnight.
With Daicos on the sidelines, the Magpies desperately Mitchell to rediscover his best, and he would know that as he eyes the big stage on Friday night.
Mitchell attended only eight centre bounces last week.
With Daicos coming out of that midfield mix, I’d be starting Mitchell alongside Scott Pendlebury and Jordan De Goey at the first centre bounce on Friday night and backing him in to win plenty of first possession.
People underestimate his ability to do that and just how important he is by flicking out a quick handball to a teammate which kick-starts the Pies’ exciting offence.
BACK IN BRODY
Collingwood couldn’t possibly entertain the idea of dropping key forward Brody Mihocek at this stage of the year.
Yes, he’s gone goalless in four of his past five matches.
According to Champion Data, Mihocek is the worst-rated key forward in the competition since round 15.
However, part of his form woes have to do with how the Magpies are playing.
Because Collingwood’s front-half game has dropped off, Mihocek is having to push higher up the ground to find the footy.
His marks inside 50 have consequently dropped from 2.9 to 1.4 a game, which is naturally going to hurt your ability to hit the scoreboard.
The one area that Mihocek has been disappointing over his past five games has been his goalkicking accuracy of just 18 per cent.
As a forward, when you get your chances you have to take them.
But I’d be backing in Mihocek to bounce back against Geelong.
He’ll be manned by either Sam De Koning or Esava Ratugolea and if he can work up to the logos on the wing and then get back goal-side of his opponent, he could not only work his way back into form but finish the night with a bag of goals.
This could be the circuit-breaker game he needs.
HOWE ABOUT THIS?
Since returning from a badly broken arm, Jeremy Howe hasn’t been able to bed down a position.
He is a player who has always displayed great courage in the air behind the ball, but the serious injury looks to have crept into his subconscious when he is weighing up whether or not to fly for the footy.
If there is no Tom Hawkins to worry about for Geelong this week, there would be an opportunity to use Howe in a different role.
Collingwood was badly hurt by Hawthorn captain James Sicily last week, who racked up 37 disposals, 19 marks and 11 intercept possessions across half-back.
The Magpies can’t allow Cats interceptor Tom Stewart to do what he wants this week.
I’d send Howe forward to play on Stewart and use him as a competitive starting point.
If Stewart wants to be assertive, Howe can play from slightly behind him and have a run and jump at the ball.
Howe could prove to be Collingwood’s Mr Fix It and allow the Pies to avoid a repeat of last week.
BRING BACK THE PRESS
If Collingwood can get its contest and clearance game back up and going, it then needs to get back to putting the squeeze on opposition sides in its forward half.
The Magpies were the best team in the competition for intercepts outside their defensive 50 in the first eight weeks of the season.
Since then, their ranking has fallen to seventh.
The forwards on the front line – including Jamie Elliott, Beau McCreery and Bobby Hill – must ramp up the pressure.
“Team trust” must return as this will allow the defenders like Darcy Moore, Nathan Murphy, Brayden Maynard and Isaac Quaynor to more confidently come forward to defend and, in doing so, squeeze the ground and cover outlets so the opposition struggle to get through.
If you occasionally get scored against over the back because you have aggressively pressed up, so be it.
It is much easier to score on turnover yourself if you are generating intercepts closer to your own goal.
MOMENTUM IS IMPORTANT
I lived through a similar scenario to what Collingwood is going through now when I was playing for the Magpies in our premiership year of 1990.
We lost consecutive matches to Essendon and Hawthorn in rounds 19 and 20.
Jason Dunstall kicked 11 goals on us in the second of those games and we went down by 83 points.
I recall a strong meeting on the back of that fortnight, where we came to the conclusion as a team that we weren’t bringing unconditional effort.
Maybe we were in self-preservation mode, not wanting to risk limb or body with finals just around the corner.
The current Magpies players – knowing they are sitting pretty on top of the ladder – might be experiencing the same thing now.
However, it’s important that they do find a little momentum in these final three rounds of the regular season.
Their issues are clearly fixable and you want to go into a finals campaign feeling good about yourself.
Momentum breeds confidence and connection.
Collingwood will be seeking to find some in games against Geelong, Brisbane and Essendon.
STILL A FLAG THREAT
Collingwood’s best footy is still the best there is in the competition, which is why they remain the flag favourites for mine.
Despite the recent issues, this team still has a premiership profile.
Defence comes before attack when it comes to winning flags and the Magpies still rank No. 1 in the competition for points against this season.
They also sit top-six in many other key categories, such as points from turnover differential, defensive 50 to inside 50 ball movement and inside-50 differential.
The one area that the Magpies would like to tidy up is their opposition scores per inside-50 percentage.
In that category, they rank ninth this season and 11th in the past six weeks.
You need to be hard to score against once the opposition gets the ball inside 50 if you want to go all the way.
More Coverage
Festival of Lies: Clubs ‘treating public for fools’ in trade spotlight
It’s the time of year for list managers and recruiters to shine, but the trade period has become a festival of lies. SCOTT GULLAN writes, the days of getting away with such gibberish are gone.
Revealed: Staggering asking price leaves Blue out in cold
The huge price Carlton forward Matt Owies has put on his head can be revealed as rival clubs baulk at his contract demands. Recap all the action from day 2 of the trade period here.