Pure Footy: Stats gurus David King and Daniel Hoyne on the big trends ahead of round 22

Collingwood’s premiership hopes will be on the line two months early at the MCG on Friday night. Here’s why.

The fallout if Collingwood falls to Geelong on Friday night will be a lot bigger than the pain of losing three games in a row.

History shows teams can afford to stumble once in the last four rounds of the home-and-away season and go on to win the premiership – but not twice. And that’s not all.

Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne said on this week’s episode of Pure Footy that teams can’t just “flick the switch” when September arrives.

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“They’ve got to start to turn things around now. People are sitting there just waiting for Collingwood to turn, it doesn’t happen.

Over the past six weeks Collingwood is ranked ninth in the competition in key defensive measures, ninth in clearances and 10th for winning the footy in general play.

“That is the profile of a mid-table team,” Hoyne said.

“Despite the numbers the whole world was talking about last year at contest and clearance ... their numbers without the footy were as close to bulletproof as what Geelong was, and that was the reason they were able to compete with Geelong and almost win that first final.

“They are nowhere near that at the moment, and they haven’t been for most of the second half of the season.”

Josh Daicos lays a bump on Ollie Henry when the Pies and Cats met in round 1. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

North Melbourne champion David King said a volatile ladder made a win this week vital for Craig McRae.

“The biggest problem Collingwood has got is the interstate teams sitting around them. If they drop this one, then they play the Brisbane Lions at Marvel ... they could easily find themselves in third, which means interstate games everywhere,” he said.

“That’s why this is such a fine line to their season.”

Hoyne revealed more numbers that won’t make Collingwood fans feel better, with Geelong getting its game in order at the right time of the season.

“We talk a lot about winning the ball between the arcs. Geelong is miles ahead of the rest of the competition at winning that contest. You win that ball against Collingwood, you get a look going inside 50. That’s their opportunity on Friday night.”

In another packed show, Hoyne and King revealed shock Lachie Neale numbers, the move Luke Beveridge made that no one has noticed, the top-rated under-23 players in the competition and more.