List analysis: Carlton’s cap tightrope and where they go from here

Carlton’s 2024 trade period was praised, but there were some sceptics. It’s not too late to turn 2025 around, but the runway is shortening. How did it get here and where could they turn?

The initial reviews of Carlton’s 2024 trade period were glowing.

However, one rival recruiter wasn’t quite so sure about the public narrative.

“I can’t believe people are saying Carlton won the trade period when they got pick 3 but no future first or (their own) second,” the veteran scout said last October.

The Blues went on to use that No. 3 pick on the player that they had rated No. 1 in the draft – Victorian midfielder Jagga Smith.

But trading up for that selection came at a considerable cost.

If you boil it down, Carlton effectively gave up 33-goal small forward Matt Owies, pick 12, pick 73, a future first-round selection and a future second-round selection in exchange for Smith, Ben Camporeale and Lucas Camporeale.

Jagga Smith and Michael Voss at the 2024 draft. Picture: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images

The Blues’ future first and second-round selections are both held by Hawthorn and currently sit at picks 3 and 21 this November.

The Hawks only handed over pick 14 in last year’s draft for those two selections.

As coach Michael Voss rightly points out, there is still a lot of “runway” to go in season 2025 and it can take years before you can fairly judge some trade deals.

That said, some of these decisions are now a close watch as Carlton finds itself at the crossroads.

Since round 17 last year, this side holds a 2-10 record.

Those two wins have come against competition battlers West Coast and North Melbourne, with poor ball movement having been a key issue over this period.

Dan Houston could have helped immensely in that area and he desperately wanted to reunite with Voss when he made the decision to leave Port Adelaide at the end of last year.

But the Blues simply didn’t have the capital to “get the job done”.

Chief executive Brian Cook conceded in mid-2023 that the club had a “top-heavy” list, bogged down by big long-term contracts.

Patrick Cripps, Jacob Weitering, Charlie Curnow, Sam Walsh, Harry McKay, Zac Williams and Tom De Koning are among those who have been well paid over recent years.

Williams was picked up as a restricted free agent at the end of 2020, on a six-year deal worth almost $5 million.

The former Greater Western Sydney speedster was recruited “first and foremost as a midfielder” but has been mostly used in defence and as a small forward.

Injuries haven’t helped, but Williams has not recorded a top-10 finish in the best-and-fairest count since arriving at Princes Park.

If you haven’t heard, De Koning is coming out of contract this year and is in the sights of rival clubs including St Kilda.

The athletic tall is the Blues’ most versatile player and has an offer to stay at Princes Park, but the Saints have serious cash to splash which might just lure him away.

St Kilda also had a crack at securing Brodie Kemp during last year’s trade period and it wouldn’t surprise if they went again this October.

A 192cm swingman, Kemp was still under contract when the Saints asked the question last year.

This year the 23-year-old is out of contact and his stocks are rising after a five-goal game against the Western Bulldogs in round 3.

One thing is for sure: It will be a busy eight months ahead for list boss Nick Austin.

De Koning and Kemp are just two of 19 players who are currently uncontracted beyond 2025.

It would be a huge blow to lose De Koning in particular, who has been Carlton’s best-performed player so far this season.

But if he does make the decision to depart as a restricted free agent, it would both free up some salary cap space and trigger a first-round compensation pick which would at least get the Blues back into the pointy end of this year’s draft.

As it stands, Carlton’s first pick this November is a second-round selection linked to reigning premier Brisbane Lions.

Should the Lions again finish top-four, that selection would likely end up in the late 30s.

While gems can be found in that range of the draft, it doesn’t guarantee you much.

The positive is that the Blues might not need many high picks to get some handy players through the door in this year’s draft.

A highly-rated 193cm defender from the Murray Bushrangers, Harry Dean could join Carlton as a father-son this November, a club for which his father Peter won two premierships.

The Blues also have access to a pair of Next Generation Academy prospects in Tyson Gresham and Jack Ison.

Gresham is the younger brother of Essendon’s Jade and is a 169cm small forward from the Northern Knights, while Ison is a promising 190cm forward from the Oakleigh Chargers.

Then there is 2026, with recruiters already raving about another Carlton father-son prospect in Cody Walker.

A bottom-age player with the Bendigo Pioneers, the powerful midfielder-forward was named the under-16 All-Australian captain last year.

He is the son of former Blues high-flyer Andrew.

Add in Smith’s return from an ACL injury next year – which will provide Carlton with a fresh dynamic through the midfield – and there is a bit to like about kids and the future.

But if Voss’ team can’t lift itself back up off the canvas after a 0-3 start to the season, that 2024 trade period might lose its glow and some bold list decisions will need to be made at season’s end.