Finals formline holds true despite circumstances of extraordinary AFL season

Richmond has a recent history of reversing regular season losses in key finals and Geelong has turned the Lions home ground into a Gabbatoir in four wins there this year.

Geelong’s Patrick Dangerfield fights off Collingwood’s Jack Crisp at the Gabba

As Geelong waltzed away from Collingwood at the Gabba on Saturday night, the magnitude of their victory was surprising, but not necessarily the result itself.

As extraordinary as the truncated 2020 season has been, the semi-finals followed an old pattern that is now well and truly established.

Under the current top eight system, the teams finishing in the top four of the ladder tend to be the sides that reach the preliminary finals, as has proven the case again in 2020.

The wins by Richmond, which defeated a plucky St Kilda by 31 points, and Geelong made it 34 semi-final successes for beaten qualifying finalists from 42 games played under the current format.

Watch the 2020 NRL Telstra Premiership Finals on Kayo. Every game before the grand final Live & On-Demand with no-ad breaks during play. New to Kayo? Get your 14-day free trial & start streaming instantly >

The Magpies had posted one of their finer finals victories when they edged West Coast by one point in Perth a week ago.

But their victory proved fool’s gold for their premiership hopes. A lot had fallen their way in a stirring victory in Perth and, as coach Nathan Buckley intimated, it proved their grand final.

The Cats, in comparison, were criticised in some quarters for their 16-point loss to Port Adelaide in a qualifying final. But not a lot went right for Geelong that night.

Tom Hawkins kicked five behinds. Gryan Miers, Gary Ablett and Gary Rohan failed to register a score.

Yet they were still within 16 points of the minor premiers, with Geelong coach Chris Scott noting a post-match analysis of the game by data analysts suggested the Cats could have won.

St Kilda enjoyed an encouraging season and, despite losing three key players in Paddy Ryder, Jake Carlisle and Ben Long for the semi-final, rallied after being jumped by Richmond.

Their inaccuracy hindered their challenge, with the Tigers able to respond whenever the Saints threatened to place them under significant pressure in the second half.

As a result, Port Adelaide will host reigning premiers Richmond on Friday night, while Brisbane will play Geelong at the Gabba.

At stake are spots in what will be the most unique grand final in the AFL’s history with the decider to be played at the Gabba on the night of October 24. And the race is wide open.

The market for the premiership is compressed. The TAB lists Brisbane as favourite at $3.40, with the Tigers at $3.80, Port Adelaide at $4 and the Cats at $4.25.

Encouragingly for both winners this weekend, they emerged from their triumphs unscathed in terms of injury and suspension.

Shane Edwards, who will move to ninth position on the all-time list of games played by Indigenous footballers with 264 matches when he steps out against Port Adelaide, and Dion Prestia are blossoming with match fitness after returning to the side recently.

Gary Ablett, whose final game will come either this Saturday or the next, did not have a lot of the football in Geelong’s cakewalk over Collingwood but his entries into the forward 50 were incisive.

The Tigers and Cats have experience and continuity in their favour. Richmond is chasing a third premiership in four years. Geelong has now reached the preliminary finals in four of the past five seasons.

Nor will the home ground advantage enjoyed by Port Adelaide and Brisbane be daunting to either side.

There is a trend in Richmond’s past two premiership campaigns which suggests the Tigers learn from early season losses against key rivals and reverse the results in the finals.

In 2017, Richmond lost to Geelong, the Giants and Adelaide in the home-and-away season.

Yet they defeated all three on the way to a drought-breaking premiership.

Last year the Tigers had lost to Geelong and the Giants in the regular season, yet rebounded to beat the pair in the preliminary and grand finals.

St Kilda trumped them earlier this year, so too Port Adelaide in what was described at the time as the match of the season.

Having reversed the result against the Saints, they will now attempt the same feat against the Power.

As defender Dylan Grimes said on Sunday, the Tigers have assessed their 21-point loss to Port Adelaide in Round 11 closely.

“They just countered every punch that we threw. In terms of ball movement, they just had an answer for all of our questions,” he said.

“I remember that feeling really clearly and we have learnt a lot from that game, I feel. That was a game where we tried every trick in the book and they were just too good.

“We have learnt a lot from that and it will be interesting to see whether those lessons pay off this week.”

The Cats have played four games at the Gabba this year and been dominant. It is their Gabbatoir away from home.

Their average winning margin in victories over North Melbourne, St Kilda, Essendon and now Collingwood is 56 points.

The Cats’ two biggest scores of 2020 — and four of their top six — were at the ground. As Scott said after their win, the Gabba holds no fears.

But both he and Richmond coach Damien Hardwick are fully aware the challenge this week is more difficult, as it should be given this stage of the season.

Port Adelaide and Brisbane topped the ladder with 14 wins and were outstanding in their qualifying finals victories. They are rested and will be confident in their ability to deliver.

The ladder formline has held up to date in all bar one final, namely Collingwood’s triumph over the Eagles.

Despite the weekend’s results and the impressive credentials of the victors, the home-and-away record suggests Port Adelaide and Brisbane deserve favouritism next weekend.

History suggests @Richmond_FC have a good chance of beating the Power on Friday night.

Apart from that there's very little to seperate the two sides according to @cleary_mitch and @kanecornes on the latest episode of The Round So Far: https://t.co/SzjKbYb4XM pic.twitter.com/6xTsyHuDAb

— AFL (@AFL) October 11, 2020