Why Cats can overturn AFL finals flops

History suggests Geelong should be a heavy favourite to defeat Collingwood in Saturday’s semi-final at the Gabba despite their recent struggles in finals campaigns.

Geelong’s Gary Rohan failed to score against Port Adelaide. Picture: Michael Klein

Long-serving AFL coach Rodney Eade believes Geelong fans should retain faith the Cats will rebound strongly on Saturday against Collingwood and history supports this belief.

Eade, a four-time premiership Hawk, said Geelong should be approaching the semi-final with confidence based on the totality of their form this year rather than worry about their recent finals record.

The Cats were forced into a sudden-death clash after falling to Port Adelaide by 16 points in the qualifying final last Thursday night, with the result highlighting their poor finals record under Chris Scott.

The Geelong coach boasts a phenomenal winning percentage of nearly 70 per cent. But the Cats have been unable to secure a premiership since his first season in charge in 2011 and have won only four of their past 16 finals.

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Eade, who coached the Swans, Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast in 377 games without claiming a premiership, believes the Cats remain capable of reversing the trend.

“I wouldn’t make too big a deal of it, to be honest,” he said.

“I would say to them, ‘A final is a final. We need to win because we’ve deserved it. We finished (in the) top four for a reason. If we do it our way, and the way we’ve been going about it. We’ll prove the doubters wrong’.

“I don’t think something’s broken at the moment, but they need to lift.”

Isolate last Thursday’s final from recent September losses and Geelong has reason for optimism they can still claim the premiership despite now being forced into sudden-death territory.

Cats coach Chris Scott has struggled to get his team winning in the finals

Geelong had four more scoring shots than minor premier Port Adelaide in the qualifying final.

Coleman Medallist Tom Hawkins had an off-night in terms of his accuracy, kicking five behinds, while Gary Ablett, Gary Rohan and Gryan Miers failed to register a score.

Yet they were still within range of defeating the minor premiers on their home ground at Adelaide Oval until late in time-on in the last term.

“I think their system is OK. I think they are all right. I wouldn’t lose faith in them. But they will need to win this week to (keep) those questions at bay,” Eade told RSN 927.

“I am of the view that what happened in 2014 is completely different to 2020, even though it builds up, because it is a different side. I don’t think you need to mention it.”

Under the current top-eight format, teams that have finished in the top four and been beaten in the qualifying finals have gone on to win 32 of the 40 semi-finals played.

“History proves that … generally the team who is in the top four are there for a reason. They win the next week,” Eade said.

Geelong’s focus is firmly on this premiership campaign and the clash with Collingwood. But the list management staff is looking further afield given the compression of the off-season due to COVID-19.

North Melbourne veteran Shaun Higgins has again been strongly linked to the Cats after Geelong showed interest in acquiring him at the end of 2019.

Both the Kangaroos and Geelong, along with Higgins, have conflicting interests to consider.

Despite his age, the 33-year-old is in outstanding shape and enjoyed another strong season, admittedly at a club which struggled the longer the season progressed.

Geelong fielded the oldest team in terms of average age in VFL/AFL history against Port Adelaide and will weigh the merits of recruiting a prospect in the latter stages of his career.

Higgins does shape as a worthy replacement for Gary Ablett, who has announced this season will be his last, given his class and versatility.

Pinned on a wall behind him as he was discussing his future at the TAB Spring Carnival

North Melbourne’s Shaun Higgins has been lined to the Cats

Launch, held via Zoom on Tuesday, was a quote from CS Lewis.

“There are far better things ahead than any that we leave behind,” the quote read.

Currently on holidays with his family, the dual-North Melbourne best-and-fairest winner said he will assess the options on returning to Melbourne.

“There is the possibility that I’ll continue there, but at the same time — and I said this last year when I was going through negotiations and talks of moving teams as well — that I’ll always put what was best for the club first,” he said.

“I did that last year. If it was best for me to move on and we were going down that path and avenue of bringing young guys in given my age, as much as I love the club and I wanted to stay, that I would be open (to moving).”