Earth to be baked by natural shift of the sun
A natural sun cycle will add 2.5C warming to Earth’s climate in coming centuries, new research has found.
A natural sun cycle will add 2.5C warming to Earth’s climate in coming centuries on top of any impact from rising greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, new research has found.
The findings will be presented today to the National Astronomy Meeting in Britain by professor Valentina Zharkova, of Northumbria University.
Professor Zharkova has long argued the impact of variations in solar activity have been underestimated in climate models.
Her earlier research focused on sunspot cycles that indicate a cooling influence on the Earth’s climate over the next two decades. Her latest work, published in Scientific Reports, concentrates on a 2000-year cycle that varies the distance between Earth and the sun.
Over a period of 2000 years, the sun’s magnetic field, as measured from the Earth, fluctuates, increasing and decreasing in strength. In its current cycle of movement, the sun is slowly moving towards the aphelion of the Earth’s orbit — the point of the orbit furthest away from the sun.
This will result in the Earth’s orbit becoming more circular, increasing the amount of solar energy to hit the surface of the Earth.
According to Professor Zharkova’s research, this movement will occur over the next 600 years and will slowly lead to an increase in the average terrestrial temperature by about 2.5C.
Dr Zharkova and her team have been able to recreate almost 60 super-grand cycles first documented in a 2015 paper, going back 120,000 years.
A statement issued by Northumbria University said the research established that the current super-grand cycle began between 1645 and 1715.
Then the sun was experiencing far fewer sunspots and the temperature on Earth decreased as a result. The latest research says we are now in the growing, or “warming”, phase of the current cycle, which is expected to reach its peak by the year 2600.
“By this time, the temperature on Earth is expected to have increased by between 2.5 and 3C,” the university said.
“This rise is due to happen in addition to any rise related to man-made activity such as carbon (dioxide) emissions.”
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