Coronavirus: Tougher measures ‘a matter of life or death’

Experts say the government will have to further tighten social distancing measures to slow virus rates.

University of Melbourne epidemiologist Tony Blakely says infections could climb to as many as 500,000 a day within weeks.

Health experts say the government will have to further tighten social distancing measures that have shut down pubs, clubs and gyms if Australia is to slow the rate of COVID-19 infections to a level at which hospitals can cope.

Infectious disease modellers say the current round of restrictions would quarter the number of likely infections at the peak of the epidemic, but even with those social distancing measures in place, unless further measures were taken, Australia could still hit a peak of 125,000 infections a day — a level that would overwhelm the nation’s intensive care units.

In the past five days, Australia’s epidemic curve has tracked steeply upwards in what University of Sydney associate professor Tim Newsome described as an alarming manner. “I think what we’re seeing is very concerning,” he said.

“We’re looking very exponential at the moment. We are tracking in a way which could potent­ially overwhelm our health systems unless we start seeing effects from social distancing and more stringent measures.”

Whether the moves to shut down public gathering spaces has been successful in flattening Australia’s curve of infections will not be known for another 10 days, but Professor Newsome said he believed governments in Australia would soon need to confine people to their homes, letting them go out only to buy food or medicine.

“My suspicion is we’re going to have to adopt stricter measures to really contain the spread,” he said.

Cases of COVID-19 are currently doubling every four days in Australia and heading towards a trajectory of a three-day doubling. If the epidemic were allowed to continue in this manner, University of Melbourne epidemiologist Tony Blakely said infections could climb to as many as 500,000 a day within weeks.

Under that scenario, the reproductive number of the virus is 2.5 — meaning every person infected with the virus would pass it to 2½ others. Social distancing measures are likely to reduce the reproductive number, known as R0.

Professor Blakely has modelled the impact of social distancing measures and predicts the moves to close pubs, clubs, restaurants and sporting facilities could reduce the R0 to 1.2 by the end of May. That would see the epidemic peak at about 125,000 infections a day in late May, with 60 per cent of the population infected.

Based on modelling completed by epidemiologists from Imperial College London, and adapting their model to Australia, Professor Blakely predicts that by the epidemic’s end, 165,000 ­people, or 0.84 per cent of cases, would require intensive care, ­assuming 60 per cent of people of all ages were infected.

At the peak of the epidemic, almost 1400 people a day would require intensive care. The nation has a little over 2200 intensive care beds, and hospitals are ramping up their capacity to double that.

Based on a scenario of every ­patient warranting intensive care admission needing to stay there for at least four days, at the epidemic’s peak there could be as many as 5600 people a day requiring intensive care, not including those for other reasons.

The key to hospitals being able to cope with the surge in cases will be reducing the spread of the disease among the elderly, Professor Blakely said. “If we allow an epidemic to pass through and infect everybody at the same rate, 90 per cent of all deaths will be amongst 60-plus-year-olds.”

Analysis of coronavirus infections data recorded by the federal Health Department reveals that those aged under 49 make up almost half of diagnosed cases.