Coronavirus: Covid-19 on par ‘with the major pandemics of 20th century’
The impact of the coronavirus epidemic ‘may be comparable to the major influenza pandemics of the 20th century’.
The impact of the unfolding coronavirus epidemic “may be comparable to the major influenza pandemics of the 20th century”, epidemiologists at Imperial College London say.
The respected MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at the Imperial has estimated in a new report that 1 per cent of people infected with coronavirus will die, but they stressed this early estimate carries a high degree of uncertainty.
The estimated death rate is almost 10 times the case fatality ratio of seasonal influenza, which the World Health Organisation calculates kills 0.13 per cent of those infected.
Neil Ferguson, co-author of the MRC Centre report, said an exact case fatality ratio for the coronavirus would not be known for some time, but early estimates indicated the unfolding epidemic would have deep effects.
The coronavirus has now been given the name Covid-19 by the WHO.
“Understanding the likely impact of the unfolding pandemic caused by the Covid-19 virus on human health will be critical to informing the decisions made by countries in the coming weeks in how best to respond to this new public health threat,” Professor Ferguson said.
“Our estimates — while subject to much uncertainty due to the limited data currently available — suggest the impact of the unfolding epidemic may be comparable to the major influenza pandemics of the 20th century.”
The comments came as a new paper by Chinese scientists claimed the incubation period for coronavirus could be as long as 24 days, raising questions as to whether quarantine periods of 14 days being imposed in Australia and around the world are long enough.
The WHO stressed that it had not changed its 14-day quarantine recommendation and experts said the Chinese paper should be treated with caution as it had not been peer-reviewed. The number of cases of coronavirus in China now exceeds 44,000, with 1113 deaths recorded. The number of diagnosed coronavirus cases in Australia remains at 15.
Katherine Gibney, an infectious disease doctor at the Austin Hospital in Melbourne and the Doherty Institute, said early estimates of the case fatality rate could change.
“It’s actually quite difficult to work out the case fatality rate during an epidemic,” she said. “The reason for that is, early on, you’re probably only picking up the severe cases so you’re going to over-estimate the mortality because you’re not counting all cases. We’re really not going to have a full picture of it for a while.”
Dr Gibney said that not only was the estimated case fatality rate much higher than seasonal influenza, the disease also appeared to be more infectious.
“It’s dangerous to say this is just like the seasonal flu; there’s lots of unknowns about it and I don’t think we should underestimate it,” she said. “It’s hard to calculate exactly how transmissible the virus is early on in an epidemic but the current estimates are that it’s more easily transmissible than flu, and we don’t have a vaccine or antiviral treatments.
“If it does become established and uncontained, then it will be very serious.”
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