COP26: Planet propelled into uncharted climate territory with far-reaching repercussions, meteorological experts warn

The planet is about to be propelled ‘into uncharted territory, with far-reaching repercussions for future generations’, an expert has warned world leaders at COP26.

Maxx Dilley, the Director of Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch of the World Meteorological Organisation, queues for a taxi at Glasgow Airport ahead of the COP26 conference. Picture: Annabel Moeller

Global leaders will take a deep breath at the “direst of the dire” latest findings on global warming, a director at the World Meteorological Organisation said.

Maxx Dilley, the director of the Climate Prediction and Adaptation branch of the WMO, told The Australian there was a 40 per cent chance that the global temperature would be above 1.5 degrees warming within the next five years.

“Even the old pros, the ones that have been doing this for 15 or 20 years who have been playing along are taking a deep breath and saying ‘you know, we kind of didn’t realise’,” he said.

In a new report released on Sunday at the United Nations Climate Change conference COP26 in Glasgow, the WMO said record atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and associated accumulated heat have “propelled the planet into uncharted territory, with far-reaching repercussions for current and future generations”.

The report warned of accelerated sea levels rises, greenhouse gas concentrations reaching new highs in 2020 – even during the slowdown of global industry because of the pandemic – and that 2021 would be between the fifth- and seventh-warmest year on record despite the cooling affects of La Nina.

Critically, the report said ocean temperatures had risen in the upper 2000m depths.

“All data sets agree that ocean warming rates show a particularly strong increase in the past two decades and it is expected that the ocean will continue to warm in the future,” the report said.

“Open ocean surface pH has declined globally over the last 40 years and is now the lowest it has been for at least 26,000 years.

“Current rates of pH change are unprecedented since at least that time. As the pH of the ocean decreases, its capacity to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere also declines.”

The WMO report combines input from multiple United Nations agencies, national meteorological including the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia and hydrological services and scientific experts.

“I think this information makes people and the world leaders think a little bit that this is real, and it’s happening and it’s serious,” Mr Dilley said.

“Hopefully it pushes the process.”

Mr Dilley said during the coronavirus pandemic, when large economies had shut down, there was a decrease in emissions. However, the concentrations of greenhouse gases, methane and CO2 didn’t correspondingly decrease.

“The concentrations stay there in the atmosphere because of the cumulative impact. It means that to get rid of them there has to be a sustained reduction in emissions even more than what happened during the pandemic – that’s the only thing that will impact on the temperature (rise),” he said.

Snapshots from the WMO Report:

GREENHOUSE GASES
In 2020, greenhouse gas concentrations reached new highs. Levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) were 413.2 parts per million (ppm), methane (CH4) at 1889 parts per billion (ppb) and nitrous oxide (N2O) at 333.2 ppb, respectively, 149%, 262% and 123% of pre-industrial (1750) levels. The increase has continued in 2021.

TEMPERATURES
The global mean temperature for 2021 (based on data from January to September) was about 1.09°C above the 1850-1900 average. The six datasets used by the WMO in the analysis placed 2021 as the sixth or seventh warmest year on record globally. But the ranking may change at the end of the year.

It is likely that 2021 will be between the fifth- and seventh-warmest year on record and that 2015 to 2021 will be the seven warmest years on record.

2021 is less warm than recent years due to the influence of a moderate La Niña at the start of the year. The last significant La Niña event was in 2011. 2021 is around 0.18°C to 0.26 °C warmer than 2011. As the 2020-21 La Niña has waned, monthly global temperatures have increased.

OCEANS
Around 90% of the accumulated heat in the Earth system is stored in the ocean and is measured through Ocean Heat Content. The upper 2000m depth of the ocean continued to warm in 2019, reaching a new record high. A preliminary analysis based on seven global data sets suggested that 2020 exceeded that record. All data sets agreed that ocean warming rates showed a particularly strong increase in the past two decades and it was expected that the ocean would continue to warm in the future.

Much of the ocean experienced at least one “strong” Marine Heatwave at some point in 2021 – with the exception of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (due to La Niña) and much of the Southern Ocean. The Laptev and Beaufort Sea in the Arctic experienced “severe” and “extreme” marine heatwaves from January to April 2021.

What action is needed to keep 1.5 degrees alive at COP26 👇#ParisAgreement | #COP26

— COP26 (@COP26) October 31, 2021

SEA LEVEL
Global mean sea level changes primarily result from ocean warming via thermal expansion of sea water and land ice melt. Measured since the early 1990s by high precision altimeter satellites, the mean global sea level rise was 2.1mm per year between 1993 and 2002 and 4.4mm per year between 2013 and 2021, an increase by a factor of two between the periods. This was mostly due to the accelerated loss of ice mass from glaciers and ice sheets.

SEA ICE
Arctic sea ice was below the 1981-2010 average at its maximum in March. Sea ice extent then decreased rapidly in June and early July in the Laptev Sea and East Greenland Sea regions. As a result, the Arctic-wide sea ice extent was A record low in the first half of July.

There was then a slowdown in melt in August, and the minimum September extent (after the summer season) was greater than in recent years at 4.72 million km2. It was the 12th-lowest minimum ice extent in the 43-year satellite record, well below the 1981-2010 average. Sea ice extent in the East Greenland Sea was a record low by a large margin.

Antarctic sea ice extent was generally close to the 1981–2010 average, with an early maximum extent reached in late August.

“So let’s come together over these two weeks. And ensure that where Paris promised, Glasgow delivers”

This morning, COP President @AlokSharma_RDG delivered his speech at the opening of #COP26.

Watch a clip below 👇#ClimateAction | #TogetherForOurPlanetpic.twitter.com/c5GayAYeG4

— COP26 (@COP26) October 31, 2021

GLACIERS AND ICE SHEETS
Mass loss from North American glaciers accelerated over the Past two decades, nearly doubling for the period 2015-2019 compared to 2000-2004. An exceptionally warm, dry summer in 2021 in western North America took a brutal toll on the region‘s mountain glaciers.

EXTREME WEATHER
Exceptional heatwaves affected western North America during June and July, with many places breaking station records by 4°C to 6°C and causing hundreds of heat-related deaths. Lytton, in south-central British Columbia, reached 49.6 °C on 29 June, breaking the previous Canadian national record by 4.6 °C and was devastated by fire the next day. There were also multiple heatwaves in the southwestern United States. Death Valley, California reached 54.4°C on July 9, equalling a similar 2020 value as the highest recorded in the world since at least the 1930s.