Colder cities warm up for 2050

Temperatures will change so much that London’s climate will resemble Madrid’s, according to analysis.

People cool off at Madrid Rio park,during this summer’s heatwave. Picture: AFP.

Temperatures will change so much over the next 30 years that London’s climate will resemble Madrid’s today; Paris will be more like Canberra; Stockholm like Budapest and Moscow like Sofia, according to a new analysis.

The changes will be even more dramatic for the world’s major tropical cities such as Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, and Singapore, which will experience unprecedented climate conditions, ­resulting in extreme weather events and intense droughts.

Scientists from ETH Zurich university examined the climate of the world’s 520 major cities using 19 variables that reflect variability in temperature and precipitation. The projections, which are published in PLOS ONE, were ­estimated using established ­modelling that was intentionally optimistic, meaning it assumed carbon dioxide emissions would stabilise by the middle of the ­century through the implementation of green policies, with a mean global temperature increase of 1.4C.

The team then compared ­climate similarity of current and future cities to one another, and the results make for dire reading.

Across the northern hemisphere, cities in 2050 will resemble places that are more than 1000km further south towards the Equator. Those closer to the Equator won’t see drastic warming but will likely have more ­extremes of drought and rainfall.

Overall, 77 per cent of the world’s cities will experience a “striking change” in climate conditions, while 22 per cent will ­experience “novel” conditions — something that has never before been encountered. In Europe, summers and winters will get warmer, with average increases of 3.5C and 4.7C ­respectively.

While the modelling used in the analysis is not new, the purpose of the paper was to organise that information in a way that would inspire policymakers to act.

Lead author Jean-Francois Bastin, from Belgium, said it was not certain that by 2060 his country would experience subzero temperatures in winter, a necessary condition for wheat seeds to become activated.

As summer temperatures surge, more people in northern Europe will buy airconditioners, adding to the strain on electric grids and possibly creating a ­vicious cycle, he added.

AFP