Coalition is best option to keep state safe and strong

NSW voters go to the polls tomorrow with the state in good shape, but the political mood is in a frazzle. What should have been a sure, steady trot to a third term for the incumbent Liberal-Nationals Coalition is instead a tight race to the finish line, with the outcome of the election too close to call. There is a strong chance of a hung parliament, a result that would stall progress and promote more instability in a state that is home to eight million people. The stark choice for NSW voters is between a sturdy, proven outfit led by a dour, workaholic and mostly competent technocrat and an untested team of political opportunists, punting on complacency and a single, second-order urban issue of stadiums to win votes in the bush. Are voters prepared to ditch policy substance for a risky leap into the unknown with a wild bunch of political hucksters?

Whichever way it goes, the election will have national repercussions, given NSW is, right now, the engine of GDP growth. The election will tell us if voters are even more splintered into single-issue tribes than we thought. The result could also recalibrate political use-by dates for administrations that plan and plod rather than scream and shout. More specifically, it may answer a key question about community tolerance to temporary disruption and willingness to delay gratification: Can a reform-oriented government, a model for public finance and private investment, overcome a series of self-inflicted political blunders to complete a once-in-a-generation construction program?

Gladys Berejiklian, who succeeded Mike Baird in January 2017, is hoping to make history as the first woman to be elected premier of NSW. The prospect and added pressures of a milestone victory — for her and the government — seem to have flustered the usually implacable Premier. Ms Berejiklian has a sharp eye for policy detail but lacks the messaging prowess of her predecessor. Her re-election campaign has been unable to inspire passion among voters or find a common theme for a grab-bag of giveaways, while the stench from federal instability has been an added burden. Coalition strategists had banked on a boost in support from a series of ribbon-cutting ceremonies around big-ticket transport projects. But cost overruns, contractual disputes, delays and community pushback have sullied the rollout, in particular the Premier’s signature CBD and southeast light rail project — a boondoggle, PR disaster and governance debacle for the former transport minister.

Since winning office in 2011, the Coalition has been innovative and bold but prone to political and personnel self-harm, with three premiers across two terms. Barry O’Farrell won a huge majority in ousting a decrepit and corruption-prone Labor, 16 years in office. Mr O’Farrell was preternaturally cautious at the helm but careless in accepting a gift of wine from a lobbyist. In 2015, Mr Baird went to the people and offered a plan to sell the state’s electricity distribution assets, the so-called “poles and wires”. The Coalition has used the proceeds on huge urban transport projects in rail, road, tunnels and light rail, and in smaller-scale regional infrastructure projects. It has spent about 70 per cent of its capital budget on transport. Critics argue the government has neglected education and health infrastructure.

But the Coalition’s strongest play has been economic management. NSW has been the country’s powerhouse economy; without the state’s vast public works program the national economy would have dipped into recession. Last month, unemployment stood at 4.3 per cent, the lowest in the country. NSW has surpluses averaging $1.3 billion across the next four years, while debt is at a record low. Part of this is luck, because of the recently booming property market and the revenues that go with it. But it is also due to solid economic management, including tight cost control on public sector wages. That record of prudence has allowed Ms Berejiklian — and her opponents — leeway in splashing cash on giveaways ahead of the election under the banner of reducing cost-of-living pressures for families. “I believe NSW can have it all,” the Premier now claims, but it is also a mark of her desperation in a tight race. There are handouts for seniors, for parents to spend on their children’s sports gear, art and music lessons, and for vehicle owners and toll-road users. The Coalition also has bulked up its spending on schools and hospitals, an area where it is always vulnerable.

As well as doling out surplus funds, Ms Berejiklian has been cleaning up after her predecessor. Mr Baird was burnt out by the grind of politics and voter scorn after missteps, such as the ban on greyhounds and forced council amalgamations. The Premier used up enormous political capital and squandered momentum in taking the heat out of those issues, which were unpopular in the bush; the Coalition paid a high price for its ineptness, losing two regional seats at by-elections. The bush, normally a Nationals stronghold, is under siege from Labor, minor parties and rural independents, and will be pivotal to the election result.

Labor leader Michael Daley, who won the top job after Luke Foley tumbled out of politics in November after sexual harassment allegations became public, has run a slick, duplicitous and cynical campaign. His strategy has been to drive a wedge between city and country voters on the vexed issue of rebuilding, at huge cost, the Sydney football stadium at Moore Park and Olympic stadium at Homebush. Mr Daley has claimed Sydney is being duchessed at the expense of social services in rural areas and regional towns, and the stadiums have been his lone rallying cry.

For a time, Mr Daley’s wily stunts and pinpoint, factory-tested slogans were getting traction in a low-energy campaign. Although he was not well known a few weeks ago, his visibility has risen. But in the final week of the campaign, Mr Daley’s true character, weaknesses and the risks posed by Labor have come to light. A video from September emerged showing Mr Daley playing the race card. He told a community forum Asian immigrants were stealing the jobs of young Australians. In a debate with Ms Berejiklian hosted by Sky News on Wednesday, the Opposition Leader stumbled over basic policy costing details and looked out of his depth. It followed a gaffe from Labor’s Treasury spokesman, whose lack of knowledge on budget parameters sent a chill through investors and business. Labor’s frontbeach is weak, has narrow life experiences and is ill-prepared to take charge of the state. The opposition has failed to make a positive case for a change of government.

Ms Berejiklian is yet to hit her stride as a leader but she has impressive work habits, has held top cabinet posts for the past eight years and appears to learn quickly from her mistakes. Her team does not look like an old government. Fresh talent regularly comes into the ranks and scandals have been kept to a bare minimum. Ms Berejiklian has also shown national leadership on reducing congestion and population issues. By taking a strong position on migration and infrastructure provision, and using a Council of Australian Governments platform, the Premier has nudged Canberra to develop better policies.

Still, the Premier is unable to connect with ordinary voters like Mr Baird, a master of empathy and directness. With the possible exception of Daniel Andrews in Victoria, it is difficult to think of a recent state leader to combine policy activism, political nous and the art of bringing voters along with the grander scheme. If anyone can step up, it is Ms Berejiklian. That’s why NSW voters should support the Coalition: to keep the historic public works program on course, to maintain global investment in those projects, to keep a lid on spending and the cost of living, and to maintain support for a diverse, tolerant and vibrant Australia. Mr Daley’s dog whistle on migrants must be rebuked; it is ugly, dangerous and divisive, a new low in Labor xenophobia after Mr Foley’s anti-China scares in 2015. Mr Daley is unfit to lead his party, let alone NSW. Labor is a huge risk to the state’s stability, harmony and prosperity.

A hung parliament would also be disastrous for NSW. Governing with a mandate is difficult enough in the frenzy of modern politics. But being forced into backroom deals with minority interests — weaker firearms regulation to satisfy the Shooters’ party, more green tape to stymie development for environmental groups — always ends in tears and sub-optimal policy. As we argued on the eve of the 2015 NSW poll, at a time of national drift, the Coalition fundamentally changed the fiscal equation, recycled funds for infrastructure, and made NSW strong and relevant again. The Berejiklian government deserves a mandate to continue the transformation of the premier state it started eight years ago.