We have to talk about Kevin - anyone?

THE time for silent whispers is over, we have to talk about Kevin. That is what Labor MPs should be telling themselves as they file into today's caucus meeting.

A primary vote slumping back to 32 per cent immediately after Julia Gillard announced the election date is a precursor to a mission impossible election year under her leadership. The simple fact is that today's poll would see a huge chunk of Labor's caucus out of a job come September 14, not to mention put Tony Abbott into the prime ministership and consign Labor to opposition for a decade.

The Prime Minister asked voters to focus their attention on the choice between the two parties when she announced the election date, and they have done just that, dumping Labor's primary vote from 38 to 32 per cent. It is back to where it was at the end - and indeed the beginning - of last year.

Gillard supporters have run out of excuses. A quick glance at Newspoll figures reminds us that the PM's support goes up when she vanishes from view, reducing to electoral wipeout territory when she returns. Her holiday in Port Douglas, time off to be with her family, and her summer break all saw Labor's vote increase, but when she returned, Labor's vote fell. The problem is the PM.

The government does have cards to play this year, as Gillard outlined in her National Press Club address. Taxing the wealthy to pay for education and disability reforms should be popular. And it will force the Coalition to choose between matching the funding and working out how to pay for it, or not delivering popular initiatives.

But Labor needs to ask itself whether Gillard has the political capital needed to pull off such a campaign. Today's Newspoll again confirms that she does not. Polling highlighting Kevin Rudd's popularity suggests he just might. It's the leadership transition that is hard to see going smoothly. But that is a matter for the caucus and the powerbrokers. Which one is going to be responsible enough to get the conversation started?