Unpopularity contest has Abbott as winner

Leaders net satisfaction

JULIA Gillard and Tony Abbott are in a neck-and-neck race to claim the title of the most unpopular political leader in the country.

The Opposition Leader's unpopularity doesn't matter, whereas the Prime Minister's guarantees continuing speculation about when she might be challenged from within her party.

A relentlessly negative campaign against the government by Abbott means a large swath of voters will naturally dislike him, but so long as it also helps the Coalition's primary and two-party-preferred votes remain well ahead of Labor's, his backbench won't care one little bit.

Gillard, on the other hand, must find a way to lift Labor's primary vote in spite of Abbott's attacks. It fell back to just 30 per cent in yesterday's poll. Nervous MPs searching for who or what to blame for poor party polling are, of course, going to look at Gillard's unpopularity as a cause.

Gillard's net satisfaction rating now sits at -22, a slight weakening from the final poll last year. Abbott's rating has improved ever so slightly, but at -23 he continues to narrowly trail the incumbent.

After recent events, the government might have expected Gillard's numbers to be even worse. Reneging on her pokies deal with Andrew Wilkie feeds directly into the image of her the opposition is keen to promote: someone whose word means little; someone willing to break deals and go back on promises.

Mounting evidence suggests it's a characterisation hard to disagree with.

The revelations about the role of Gillard's office in causing the security breach that left her being unceremoniously dragged to a waiting car will need more time to filter into voters' minds. As it does, those polled are likely to further penalise Labor's primary vote and the PM's satisfaction rating.

Labor strategists had hoped the summer break would take the heat out of Abbott's negative messaging.

Instead, a bad end to last year has been replaced by an even worse start to this. An Abbott prime ministership looks ever more inevitable.