Throwing caution to wind too clever by half

ANNOUNCING the election date so far in advance is clever politics but it risks being too clever by half.

Superficially, Julia Gillard has locked Labor in behind her.

The Prime Minister can now put pressure on Tony Abbott to release policy details, giving the government the chance to unpick those policies well before polling day, with the full weight of the public service behind her.

If the Opposition Leader refuses to release policies before the formal campaign commences in August, he risks losing credibility.

Knowing the election date so far in advance gives a greater aura of certainty to the final year of the government's term, undercutting the opposition's capacity to cause chaos during parliamentary sitting weeks.

It also ends distracting speculation about the likely date.

And let's not forget that by holding the election on September 14, Wayne Swan will be spared the embarrassment of releasing figures that show the deficit continuing to grow.

There are also downsides in declaring the date so far in advance. Chief among them is the campaigning certainty now provided to the opposition.

Normally, governments are able to book advertising, lock in postal vote application times and plan their campaigns in a way oppositions cannot. This unequal playing field is one of the reasons federal governments have resisted moving to fixed terms.

Given that the minority Labor government needs to pick up seats to retain office, giving up campaign advantages is a risky business indeed.

Plus, no longer being able to move polling day around, even if only slightly, exposes Labor to events out of its control and reduces its capacity to take advantage of changing political circumstances: for example, if an interest rate rise damaged it, or to benefit from improved polling.

Nervous Labor MPs now know only Kevin Rudd can delay a dangerous polling date beyond September 14. Were he to take over as prime minister in the second half of this year, he could push polling day back by months.

If the polls deteriorate, no one should underestimate the capacity of Labor MPs to ruthlessly remove her as leader in an attempt to save themselves.

Finally, September 14 falls in the second week of the AFL finals and the first week of the NRL finals, which risks upsetting football-mad voters, especially in Gillard's home state of Victoria.

One of the AFL semi-final matches is likely be played on the day of the election.

Gillard needs to throw caution to the wind this year to manufacture a way of defeating the Coalition at the election.

She did that yesterday in a move which, on balance, appears to be to her advantage.

But there are risks.