The rot extends to federal Labor

TODAY'S Newspoll should end debate about whether Queensland Labor's problems extend to the federal party.

The government of Anna Bligh picked up 26.9 per cent of the primary vote at Saturday's election. According to Newspoll, if a federal election were held last weekend Julia Gillard's government would have received just 28 per cent primary support.

This Newspoll represents federal Labor's worst primary performance since September and its worst two-party result since November.

The similarities for Queensland and federal Labor are in the numbers. The only difference between the unpopular governments is that one was due for an election on Saturday while the other still has time to improve its electoral fortunes before it must face the voters.

Labor optimists will cling to the margin of error as the explanation for the three percentage points drop in primary support and the four point worsening in Labor's two-party vote. But they cannot escape the fact that the strategy of slowly building the Labor vote (and brand) over the summer months as a precursor to electoral competitiveness has utterly failed.

Poor polls, poor electoral results and a brutal leadership showdown has sent the Labor vote and the Labor brand in the same downward direction.

The end-of-February rise to 35 per cent in Labor's primary vote was its best result since the carbon tax was announced.

However, that now looks like a one-off aberration caused by voters misunderstanding Gillard's leadership contest with Kevin Rudd. They may have thought he would be returning as prime minister.

The two next Newspolls have seen the Labor vote fall to 31 and now 28 per cent, the range it was in for much of last year.

The summer has done nothing to rebuild its brand, and that brand is now further under investigation courtesy of the Queensland debacle. The brutality of the state party's defeat should leave federal MPs wondering what the electorate might have in stall for them come the end of next year.

The only good news for Labor in this Newspoll is that Gillard has extended her lead over Tony Abbott on the preferred PM ratings by one point to 40 per cent against 37 per cent, and her net satisfaction rating has improved from minus 34 to minus 27.

But these are hardly an endorsement, and the threat to her leadership has passed anyway. Labor needs Gillard to lift its party vote, but that isn't happening.