IN the past 48 hours, Julia Gillard has lost significant support for her leadership and the previously unthinkable is starting to happen.
Kevin Rudd is firming for another shot at the prime ministership. It has happened because Gillard backers can no longer see how she will rise in the polls. Saving seats is the mantra.
Some of the Prime Minister's closest supporters are withdrawing their veto of a return by Rudd, prepared to tolerate its inevitability even if they won't withdraw support for Gillard. That's how Gillard's demise is being described, as "inevitable".
An acceptance is growing that Rudd's return - which would probably spark an immediate election and cause a number of senior ministers to resign - could stave off an electoral rout.
He would help Labor save seats, especially in Queensland. Rudd presiding over an election defeat (albeit less catastrophic) would end his political career and put a full stop to the Gillard/Rudd wars - without Rudd being able to hide behind the hypothetical narrative that had he won the job back, he could have saved Labor.
It's a defeatist outlook that has elevated Rudd's chances of a comeback after he was resoundingly defeated 71 to 31 in February's leadership ballot.
Desperate times call for desperate measures. The past week has been very bad for the government, Gillard in particular. She supported doing a deal with Peter Slipper and it backfired. She declared that Thomson had her full support; now she admits that a line needs to be drawn (whatever that means).
Poor judgment has long been a feature of Gillard's prime ministership, but her supporters had always held out the hope that she would overcome her early wobbles to build momentum. Not any more.
The prospect of a third candidate emerging remains possible, given that some quarters of the caucus remain very hostile to Rudd. Bill Shorten, Stephen Smith and Simon Crean are all talked about as options, but none of them has the seat-saving potential in a snap election that Rudd has.
A switch away from Gillard might still take time to play out, but the precursor to it occurring has been set.
Gillard supporters no longer think that she can win the next election, and they are no longer prepared to stand in the way of a Rudd return.
With that shift, popularity is likely to win the day and Rudd remains by far Labor's most popular leadership option.
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