Recovery bounce is far from a victory

Polls ALP Nicholson

AFTER a kick in the pants from the last fortnightly Newspoll survey for the year - the primary vote for the Gillard government dropped to 32 per cent - the latest quarterly state-by-state breakdown and demographic analysis is just what Labor wanted.

Overall, the primary vote is up - from 33 to 35 per cent - and Julia Gillard's satisfaction with voters and preferred prime minister status is up - especially in Queensland.

In a December quarter that included the Prime Minister's misogyny speech, directed at Tony Abbott but defending ex-Speaker Peter Slipper, Gillard's support rose among women - by seven percentage points - the young and even her toughest audience, the over 50s.

What's more, Gillard recovered ground in the key state of Queensland where the ghost of Kevin Rudd haunts her.

Across the board Gillard's support and Labor's vote rose remarkably - between eight and 10 points - and Coalition and Greens support either fell or just held the line.

NEWSPOLL: State and demographic breakdown

The whole flavour of the demographic and state-by-state polling, based on three months of Newspoll surveys between October and December, fits the Labor "narrative" of rising support as we enter the 2013 election year, where Labor is desperate to be seen as "competitive".

While the final two-week survey put paid to the idea of a steady or rising primary support for the ALP, the three-month survey reflects a trend of recovery for Labor and Gillard.

This is good for Labor.

But there is a harsh reality in that Labor has essentially ended the year where it began on the primary vote and on a two-party-preferred basis, and the "recovery" just means Labor has improved from some record lows.

Queensland - where Labor and Gillard have to pick up votes if the government stands any chance of being re-elected - is still not back to where it was in 2010 when a swag of seats were lost. The current two-party-preferred swing suggests even more seats would be lost.

Gillard has undoubtedly improved her position as preferred prime minister against Tony Abbott, who has low voter satisfaction, and Labor has lifted its primary vote from the dire levels of earlier in the year.

Yet, for all the encouraging news for Labor in the latest Newspoll quarterly analysis, the fact remains Labor is not "competitive" going into the election year and a recovery from disaster to near-disaster doesn't translate into a victory strategy for the 2013 election.