Pivotal moments to shape election contest

Leader of the Opposition Bill Shorten. Picture: AAP

Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten this week face pivotal moments that may come to define the leadership qualifications of both men as the nation steers toward an election.

The Coalition will confront the potential of losing not one but two votes on the floor of parliament with the ultimate consequence being a government portrayed as having lost control of events.

The Labor leader on the other hand risks gifting the Coalition a 2013 campaign platform on ­national security and border ­protection — one that it hadn’t anticipated.

The stakes are high and the outcomes significant.

Shorten’s strategy is simple. Labor will seek to deal with the medivac bill by tomorrow afternoon and rid itself of the issue.

He does not want to get trapped in an extended debate over boats.

One way out for Shorten will be to draft amendments to those sneakily attached to a Home ­Affairs housekeeping bill by the Greens and independent Tim Storer in the Senate last year.

Any further amendments would presumably be based on advice given to him in a briefing this morning by the Department of Home Affairs. The aim would be to address the government’s chief argument that ministerial discretion to refuse entry of those transferees was too narrow and therefore giving effect to the dismantling of offshore processing.

Assuming the crossbench — minus Bob Katter — agrees, the amendments could be passed by tomorrow afternoon, inflicting the first such loss for a government in more than 70 years.

Shorten would move swiftly to the next order of business, which would be to force a vote on extending parliamentary sitting weeks to pass legislation to crack down on banks — which doesn’t yet exist — in response to the banking royal commission.

This in theory could be an easier vote to win than the Nauru bill. Katter would be hard-pressed to oppose it. And this would be disastrous for the government. It is a first order retail issue being played out on Labor’s terms. Most people think politicians are lazy and don’t understand what the problem is in working a few more days. But further sitting weeks would be akin to water torture for the Morrison government. There is no end to the chaos the opposition might pursue if given the chance.

While Shorten wants to make it about the banks, Morrison wants to make it about boats.

A genuine battle over border protection would be a godsend for the Liberal leader who pre­sided over Operation Sovereign Borders. While the government may have taken the potency out of the issue with its success in stopping the boats, Shorten does not want anyone reminded of the legacy of horrors left by former Labor governments on this issue.

Just one boat arrival between now and the election could easily reignite old anxieties at a time when people are also being told to batten down the hatches for economic headwinds.

The backdrop to this critical week is the electoral reality, however. The Coalition has held on to the territory it reclaimed over summer but remains considerably behind, according to today’s Newspoll. The fact the numbers haven’t returned to the pre-Christmas horror of a two-party- preferred vote of 55-45 will give Morrison belief that following a messy couple of weeks, the ­Coalition remains competitive.

But it could also be a case of situation normal for the Coalition, which has hovered around an ­average of 53-47 for the best part of two years. The government won’t be too concerned that despite a spirited campaign against Labor’s tax plans, the polls suggest public opinion wasn’t shifting at a national level in the right way on the two tax issues that it believes are electoral cancer for Labor. It believes the issues are starting to bite in the seats that matter.