Newspoll: Coalition steadies but loss looms

The Coalition has held its electoral ground but still remains on course for a bruising defeat at the likely May poll.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Picture: AAP

The Coalition has held its electoral ground but still remains on course for a bruising defeat at the likely May poll, despite a lift in Scott Morrison’s approval ratings and a forceful campaign against Labor’s tax plans.

An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows Labor lifting its primary vote by one point and retaining a commanding lead over the Coalition, with a two-party-preferred vote of 53 to 47.

It follows the release of the banking royal commission’s damning findings last week and a pitched battle over the so-called medivac bill, with both parties preparing for a border protection showdown when parliament returns tomorrow.

The poll also shows that Labor’s plan to abolish franking credit refunds for retirees is widely opposed, with 44 per cent of voters against abolishing the $5.5 billion in annual refunds that benefit up to 900,000 people. Just 35 per cent are in favour. However, this represents a four-point fall in opposition to Labor’s plans since December, suggesting the campaign against the so-called retiree tax has yet to resonate ­further.

The Prime Minister and Josh Frydenberg still have a task ahead in turning voters against Labor’s negative gearing and capital gains policy, with 51 per cent in favour of abolishing the tax break for ­investors, who include families on modest incomes and services workers. While this is down from 54 per cent a year ago, it is still significantly higher than the 32 per cent who say they are opposed to the policy, a figure that has remained largely unchanged since a poll conducted before Christmas.

Mr Morrison has maintained his lead over Bill Shorten as the preferred prime minister, widening the gap by two points to 44 to 35 in the latest fortnightly poll.

The Liberal leader’s approval ratings have also lifted, with a three-point upswing to 43 per cent and a drop of two points in those dissatisfied with his performance, to 45 per cent.

The Prime Minister’s personal improvement has not translated into any gain in popular support for the Coalition. Its primary vote is at historical lows of 37 per cent.

Labor has lifted a point to 39 per cent, a 4.3 per cent primary vote swing towards the opposition since the 2016 election.

If there was a swing of that magnitude to Labor, the Coalition would lose 14 seats.

The Labor leader remains unpopular with voters, recording a net negative approval rating of minus 15, which is the difference between those satisfied with his performance (36 per cent) and those not (51 per cent).

This represents a two-point ­decline in support for Mr Shorten.

At a two-party-preferred split of 53-47, the Coalition retains its post-summer bounce, which marked a four-point turnaround, having finished the end of last year trailing Labor by 55 to 45.

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Despite no shift in Newspoll, Finance Minister Mathias Cormann said today the Coalition’s campaign against Labor’s tax plans would eventually led to a tightening in the polls.

“The election is sometime in May. There are a lot of conversations to be had between now and then with the Australian people,” he said.

“What you’ll find is that as more and more Australians become aware of the negative impact on them and on Australia of Bill Shorten’s agenda, the polls will continue to tighten.”

One Nation continued to lose ground, dropping a point to 5 per cent, with the Greens failing to ­arrest a 1.2 percentage-point swing against the party since the last election, leaving it at 9 per cent.

Support for other parties, ­including independents and minor parties, remained at 10 per cent.

The Newspoll was conducted over three days from Thursday to yesterday, with a survey of 1567 voters nationally in city and ­regional areas.

The maximum sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 per cent.

Additional reporting: Richard Ferguson