Tony Abbott remains favourite in Warringah

Tony Abbott, the member for the seat of Warringah, at Manly Beach. Picture: John Feder

There has been plenty written and said suggesting that Zali Steggall is a “Labor stooge” and Bill Shorten has a secret agenda for her to defeat Tony Abbott in his seat of Warringah.

While there is little doubt that it is advantageous for Labor to have more independents challenging more Liberals in traditionally safe conservative seats, to claim that Shorten is better off if Abbott leaves parliament is a furphy.

The simple fact is that whether you agree or disagree with Abbott’s antics in recent years he has been a divisive figure within the right.

Abbott has questioned the science of climate change, opposed gay marriage, backed Cardinal Pell, opposed the National Energy Guarantee and continues to fight for hard right reactionary causes.

He even politically courted Pauline Hanson, spruiking the need to attract One Nation voters back to the Liberal fold, including by showing sympathy for some of her policies.

Abbott tore down Malcolm Turnbull as PM, albeit understandably so given what Turnbull did to him.

Given the divisions which exist within the Liberal Party, Shorten is much better off if Abbott survives the Warringah challenge and is around in the next parliament to fight for the causes he believes in which so many of his parliamentary colleagues do not.

He will continue to stoke divisions within the right.

Since Labor believes elections are won and lost by occupying the centre ground, Abbott wanting his party to drift to the right also suits Labor.

This newspaper has done an excellent job exposing the links between her campaign and Labor. If Labor is actively trying to ensure Abbott’s defeat it is using a short term approach rather than thinking about the long term benefits to Labor of keeping Abbott around.

If Steggall is to win Warringah it will be because enough moderate leaning Liberal voters desert Abbott in a bid to see him tipped out of parliament once and for all. Yes she will secure preference flows from Labor and possibly the Greens, but victory or defeat for Steggall will be decided by traditional Liberals.

I remain convinced Abbott is the favourite but he is by no means safe, and he knows it. Notice how less divisive he is at the moment on issues like Morrison’s sudden embrace of renewables.

In the meantime, Steggall’s candidacy ensures that funds raised by Liberals in Warringah which would normally go into marginal seats will now need to stay local to help save Abbott. The same problem exists in Wentworth. That is a drain on the national Liberal campaign.

Abbott also won’t be as prominent nationally, needing to stay local to hold his seat. While some Liberals joke that Abbott not campaigning nationally is a plus for Team Morrison, it still means he won’t be able to float around the country helping to raise funds amongst conservative audiences in the way that he otherwise might have.

Peter van Onselen is a professor in politics at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.