The Coalition has been here before

NEWSPOLL puts Victorian Premier Denis Napthine at long odds to hold on to government come November. In fact Sportsbet puts the Coalition at $4 with Labor at $1.20.

The Coalition is down by 45-55 per cent on the two-party vote, its primary vote is just 35 per cent and Napthine’s net satisfaction rating is -3.

But the Coalition has been here before. At the same time in the election cycle four years ago, it trailed the Labor government 45-55 per cent on the two-party vote, its primary vote was 36 per cent and then Liberal leader Ted Baillieu’s net satisfaction was -2.

Despite the almost identical. disastrous figures, Baillieu and his Coalition team went on to win the election. It can be done.

But the Coalition needs to get its campaign in order and focus the election on leadership — Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews has a net satisfaction rating of -9, with Napthine the preferred premier by 10 points.

The Coalition had baggage in 2010, underpinned by years of internal factional fighting. This time it must overcome an unimpressive four years in power, the chaos caused by former Liberal Geoff Shaw’s impact on the parliament, and the spectre of a first-term premier forced to step aside.

The smart money is on a change of government, but history tells us the contest may be far from over.