Turnbull’s tenure gets key vote of approval

Predictions that the same sex marriage issue would crush Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership appear to be unfounded. Picture: AAP

With five weeks to go before the deadline for returning postal votes closes, a response rate of nearly 60 per cent is extraordinary. It’s hard to imagine the final figure falling short of 70 per cent from here. Even the current figure would be a credible level of engagement for any final outcome. Keep in mind most non-compulsory general elections around the world are lucky to crack a 50 per cent turnout figure.

• SSM postal survey figures revealed

That’s the norm in the US, UK and Canada. Ireland’s constitutional referendum to enact SSM had a turnout only marginally above 60 per cent, and it didn’t go down the path of an antiquated postal survey, as we have.

While advocates for the postal survey shouldn’t necessarily misinterpret the high response rate as an endorsement of the process (gay Australians, for example, won’t thank the Coalition for the hatred and humiliation this process has unleashed), there is little doubt it has been a success.

Mathias Cormann — who has responsibility for the ABS — has run the survey smoothly. The ABS (so far) has surprised with their competence, given the descent into darkness we all witnessed as last year’s census ran into problems. The government-funded get-out-the-vote ads have done their job, and the YES and the NO campaigns have embraced the process.

Predictions of a boycott or a woeful response rate have not materialised. The High Court challenge to the constitutionality of the survey was unanimously defeated on all counts, despite high-profile predictions to the contrary.

The polling evidence we have to go on suggests that an overwhelming majority of those who have already returned their survey forms are voting YES.

While caution when reading polls is necessary — in non-compulsory systems they are less accurate, remembering BREXIT and Donald Trump’s victories — the evidence does point to a clear result.

A clear result will certainly help heal the wounds of the campaign and allow for an easier and swifter move to legislate SSM, but today’s ABS confirmation of the high level of engagement in this survey means that even a close result will carry legitimacy.

This campaign has energised sections of the community, especially among the young, who aren’t normally engaged in politics. While that’s been good for this process, conservatives who wanted a popular vote on SSM as a barrier to reform may have unwittingly unleashed a powerful new force in Australian politics, one that isn’t a natural ally of conservatism.

That said, the postal survey was believed to be the least worst option the Coalition had at its disposal to resolve this issue, without dividing the government. The high response rate will go a long way to quashing predictions that SSM would crush Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership before the year is over.

Peter van Onselen is a contributing editor for The Australian, a professor of politics at the University of Western Australia and a presenter on Sky News