Peter van Onselen: reality dawns on Turnbull wreckers

The group that rolled Malcolm Turnbull, pictured, as prime minister might now realise the damage they’ve done, writes Peter van Onselen. Picture: AAP

COMMENT

You get the impression that it might finally be dawning on the gaggle of wreckers who tore down Malcolm Turnbull what they have done. The five Newspolls since that time have all pointed to a humiliating defeat at the next election. Today’s two party vote puts the Coalition on just 46 per cent. For context that is a worse result than Paul Keating’s 1996 loss to John Howard, Howard’s 2007 loss to Kevin Rudd and Rudd’s 2013 loss to Tony Abbott.

And don’t forget that the four previous Newspolls under Turnbull had the government trailing Labor by just 49 to 51 per cent: a better result than Howard’s 1998 victory over Kim Beazley and similar to Bob Hawke’s 1990 win over Andrew Peacock. Governments can win close elections with less than 50 per cent of the two party vote, just not when that vote slumps as low as it has now for the Coalition.

Newspoll: PM slips as ratings go negative

The political geniuses who created this mess can at least console themselves that things aren’t as bad as they could have been. Had they been more competent in their plans Peter Dutton would have become PM, not Scott Morrison. That surely would have seen the government’s vote even more depressed than it currently is. After all, it was Newspoll that revealed that just six per cent of voters preferred Dutton as Liberal leader.

Now that Turnbull is gone and the government and the country are stuck with Morrison as PM for the next six or seven months, the question is: what can he do to fix the disaster created? Not much is the simple answer, but he has to try I suppose. Curling up into a ball and sitting in the corner isn’t an option.

Today’s Newspoll reveals that even Morrison’s personal numbers are already slipping. His net satisfaction rating has dipped into negative territory, and his better PM lead over Bill Shorten has narrowed. Even those who were spruiking some sort of false honeymoon a few weeks ago (which made no sense to me when reading the polling numbers) now have to admit things are in fact dire.

In other words the more voters see and hear from Morrison the less they like him. That is a huge problem when added to the dysfunction which will surely be punished come election time.

It’s nigh impossible for a PM who has no experience, leads a divided party and is unpopular to lift a depressed primary vote (the Coalition is on just 36 per cent). Turnbull was all that this rabble had going for them. He was the one thing that stood between the reactionary hard right and the rest of us. Morrison sups with them as he gyrates around trying to work out what he really believes in.

While never especially popular in local communities, Turnbull was at least seen as competent. Without him voters have little reason to put their trust in a government led by an ex-marketing man.

This comes off the back of Liberals telling us the result in Wentworth — an historically large swing and the first time the Liberals have lost the seat — doesn’t matter. Talk about cognitive dissonance.

So having spent up big to try and hold Wentworth, the Liberals now need to try and find the funds they need to campaign hard to turn polls like today’s around. I’m not sure how they do that given that Turnbull was their single biggest donor, former deputy Julie Bishop (treated appallingly) was their best fundraiser with the big end of town and Turnbull ally Craig Laundy was their best fundraiser among small and medium sized businesses (given his background and connections). All three won’t lift a finger now, and why should they.

But wait, there’s more.

Today Abbott has written an article in this newspaper calling for Liberal unity. Read that back, I’m not even joking. You can’t make this stuff up. My favourite line in the piece: “under Morrison, it won’t be internal division that holds us back”.

Having created the chaos of the last few months, internal division is frankly the least of this government’s problems. They are perceived as incompetent and all at sea. Voters don’t want to reward them for how they have conducted themselves.

So a slow clap for the 35 MPs and senators who voted for the spill motion which precipitated this mess: political geniuses, one and all.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University