Peter van Onselen: John Howard comebacks don’t help Scott Morrison

Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Picture: AAP

COMMENT

Today’s Newspoll has once again confirmed the sheer lunacy of removing Malcolm Turnbull from the prime ministership: a self-inflicted wound Liberal MPs will tangibly feel come the next election.

The falling numbers also highlight that Scott Morrison’s marketing strategy — selling himself as an everyday Aussie bloke — is proving as successful as his ‘Where the bloody hell are you’ campaign when heading up Tourism Australia.

The primary vote for the government is down, as is the two party vote. A two party vote of 55-45, favouring the Opposition, could see Labor break its record 1983 victory under Bob Hawke, which delivered a 13 seat majority.

Let’s not forget the final four Newspolls under Turnbull’s leadership saw the Coalition trailing by just 49-51 per cent on the two party vote. Today’s deflated Coalition would kill for such numbers.

But it’s not just the party numbers which are going backwards for the government. Morrison’s personal ratings are heading south too. His net satisfaction rating is down to minus eight, having been positive seven less than a month ago. Basically the more voters see of him as PM the less they like him.

And Bill Shorten is narrowing the better PM ratings too, trailing Morrison by just six points. While optimists hope that Morrison can turn things around between now and next May, when the election is due, it’s just as likely that his spin over substance approach turns more voters off rather than on.

John Howard while prime minister in 2004.

The marketing stunt of driving a bus around Queensland to prove how earthy Morrison is fell so very flat. The PM flying in and out on his private jet, accompanied by a host of taxpayer funded advisers at great expense, didn’t exactly play into the narrative.

Voters saw the stunt for what it was.

Yes, John Howard came back from worse positions than Morrison finds himself now. Not just against Mark Latham in 2004, but also against Kim Beazley in 2001 and in 1998 when selling a goods and services tax.

But Morrison is no Howard: not as a strategist and certainly not in substance. Equally, Howard wasn’t trying to put lipstick on a pig. His government had a far better record to sell as elections loomed, and without the leadership chaos this lot are best known for.

Finally, Howard held majority government, with electoral buffers when entering campaigns. This Coalition government is in minority and a host of its key marginal seat MPs have already announced they won’t contest the next election, with more to come.

In short while it’s true others such as Howard (and Paul Keating in 1993) have come back from similar poor polls, it’s highly unlikely such moments from history will repeat at the next election.

If Morrison loses and loses badly, it’s the 35 geniuses who voted for Peter Dutton in the first spill — terminally damaging Turnbull (the one thing this mob had going for it) — who can take credit for the result.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University