Peter Dutton leadership challenge of Malcolm Turnbull may result in early poll

Quite obviously Peter Dutton will have a second crack at the leadership. The only question is will he get the chance. Malcolm Turnbull may decide to visit the Governor-general and call an early election. Why not?

While some would say that would be a selfish action, it may be the path of least resistance for the Coalition. Winning by 48-35 votes is far from convincing, but for now at least Turnbull can claim majority support.

The election is likely lost whoever leads the government to the polls. Despite four consecutive Newspolls showing Labor only marginally in front (51-49 per cent) and a recent Fairfax poll showing overwhelming popular support for the National Energy Guarantee, Turnbull was mortally wounded by his reactionary right flank.

Those few MPs and Senators managed to cause enough chaos such that a gaggle of nervous marginal seat MPs decided to join the coup.

Dutton’s logic beyond personal promotion is that he can save Queensland (which is why so many Queensland MPs supported him), and he might as well have a crack given his own marginal seat is at risk and the reactionaries will simply find another candidate he won’t be theirs.

So what happens now? There are a few options. Turnbull goes to the polls early, as mentioned, or he fights on with a sense of inevitability that he cannot survive.

Or he looks to support a loyal alternative to Dutton: Scott Morrison, Julie Bishop or even Mathias Cormann were he to run from the senate. Frankly, this last option is the best in my opinion.

Or, Turnbull could walk and leave the prime ministership open. No endorsements, nothing. This would leave Dutton in a stronger position than the scenario above. But would Turnbull want to reward his disloyalty? I highly doubt it.

Peter van Onselen is a professor at The University of Western Australia and Griffith University