Newspoll: Threats to Malcolm Turnbull have passed, for now

Malcolm Turnbull, Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese during Question Time last week. Picture: AAP

Yes opinion polls come and go, and the only poll that counts is Election Day. But there is so much to ponder from today’s Newspoll.

Superficially, Malcolm Turnbull has clocked up another Newspoll fail; I’ve lost count of how many consecutive two party defeats it’s now up to since the last election. But beyond that reading — which admittedly is the most important number in any opinion poll — there is so much more.

The major parties are neck and neck on the primary vote, at 38 per cent a piece. It’s not really high enough for either major party to feel confident. In 2010 Labor won the election with a minority of the seats with 37.99 per cent primary support. Its historic 2007 victory which only saw Labor’s total rise to 83 of the 150 seats on offer (a majority of just eight) required a primary vote of 43.38 per cent.

In other words Bill Shorten can’t feel confident with 38 per cent support now, especially when he trails Malcolm Turnbull on the preferred PM rating 30 to 47 per cent. Even if every uncommitted respondent (23 per cent) swung Shorten’s way between now and the election he would still only lead 53 to 47 per cent. No wonder his net satisfaction rating is an abysmal minus 21, compared to Turnbull’s minus 10.

And today’s Newspoll delivers another blow for Shorten, asking respondents who is their preferred Labor leader. The winner goes to those who are uncommitted (28 per cent). Second is Shorten’s leadership rival Anthony Albanese on 26 per cent. Shorten ties with his deputy Tanya Plibersek on just 23 per cent. But digging deeper into those results when the current party affiliations of respondents are looked at, Shorten dominates the share of Labor supporters with 39 per cent of their support, ahead of Plibersek on 25 per cent. Because Labor is in front on the two party vote it doesn’t need a leader who can swing votes back its way.

Or does it? Given that the primary is too low to comfortably win the election, Labor strategists may disagree. Shorten must be grateful to Kevin Rudd for changing the rules around leadership challenges — in the wake of what Shorten did to Rudd in 2010 it was necessary to avoid further cultural malaise.

Notwithstanding the error margins attached to the polls, the primary votes of the Greens and One Nation will be central in deciding the election. Where do those votes flow? We know the Greens overwhelmingly back Labor, which means that if 8 of the Greens’ 9 per cent support joins forces with the 38 per cent Labor primary Shorten needs to find another 4 per cent support to hit even just 50 per cent TPP, which probably isn’t enough to deliver Labor minority government.

Labor will get its fair share of the “other” primary which Newspoll calculates as 7 per cent. But what happens with the 8 per cent One Nation vote? This is the battleground for party strategists come election time, especially in the all important state of Queensland. If One Nation preferences against sitting MPs, Turnbull is likely finished. If he can do a deal with Pauline Hanson without suffering blowback from swinging moderate voters (a big risk), and if One Nation supporters follow their how to vote cards (debatable at best), then the election is up for grabs for the Coalition.

One thing is clear from the twists and turns in today’s Newspoll: The one time threats which have existed to Turnbull’s leadership have passed, for now. Instead it is Shorten under pressure, almost bizarrely that pressure has mounted even though Labor continues to lead on the two party vote. The by-elections will play an important role delivering one of the major parties momentum for the second half of this year.

Peter van Onselen is a professor at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.