Newspoll not such a happy 21st for Turnbull

Malcolm Turnbull needs a good start to 2018.

Twenty-firsts are supposed to be a celebratory affair, but not this week’s milestone for Malcolm Turnbull. Chalking up 21 consecutive Newspolls trailing Labor on the two party vote puts him within just nine polls of the yardstick Turnbull used to remove Tony Abbott as PM. Turnbull also trails Bill Shorten on the net satisfaction ratings (minus 24 to minus 22).

Of course there were other factors that weighed into Turnbull’s 2015 challenge — including economic management and PMO mismanagement. We’ve recently been reminded just how dysfunctional Abbott’s PMO must have been. But the ticking clock of Newspoll is another distraction this government simply doesn’t need.

The problem for the Coalition is that it’s party vote seems set in stone, trailing Labor by too much to claw back a victory at the next election. While John Howard started his campaign against Mark Latham trailing by the same margin as this week’s Newspoll, only to comprehensively undo the then Labor leader, Shorten is no Latham. Equally, we haven’t seen a political leader as savvy as Howard for a very long time.

Shorten’s discipline belies his personal numbers, which see him trailing Turnbull on the better PM stakes. As party strategists will always tell you, it’s the primary vote which counts the most. The Coalition’s primary vote has been eaten away at by third parties and the challenge it faces on its right flank internally and among the commentariat.

The constant undermining from reactionary commentators and the odd internal critic stifles what was already a slim chance of political recovery.

Turnbull needs a good start to 2018 to have any chance of building momentum for a polling comeback which might be replicated at the next election. Forget predictions that he’ll be rolled before Christmas — such wishful thinking is based on hope and bitterness, not reality.

But for 2018 not to become a slow unravelling of the government and indeed Turnbull personally, he needs to settle policies and issues such as energy policy and the legislating of SSM this parliamentary year, assuming the survey is successful. He needs to put the High Court problems behind the government this year, and institute a reshuffle that recalibrates his team for a tough election countdown.

Turnbull has a lot of balls in the air as this year comes to a close. To give himself a chance of recovery next year he can’t afford to drop any of them.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics at the University of Western Australia and a presenter on Sky News.