Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull’s slide in approval is a worry for Libs

Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating has taken a hit. Picture: AAP

The shift in Malcolm Turnbull’s net satisfaction rating is a disturbing element of this week’s Newspoll for the government, highlighting that Labor’s attacks that the PM is out of touch and unresponsive to voter concerns is cutting through.

It’s no coincidence that since the by-elections at the end of last month and the refusal of the government to react to the results and dump the company tax cuts, the PM’s net satisfaction rating has collapsed and is now only marginally ahead of Bill Shorten’s.

It’s not that the results were that bad, or indeed that company tax cuts are bad economic policy. The problem is one of perception: a PM seen as out of touch. Not reacting to by-election defeats only highlights the criticism.

The collapse in Turnbull’s personal support sits in stark contrast to the continuing close two-party result, which still sits at 51-49 in Labor’s favour. That’s close enough for the government to overhaul the opposition in an election campaign, much less between now and May next year when the election is likely due.

But it needs momentum to swing its way, and too many issues continue to run against it.

Despite the fall in the PMs personal support, he continues to benefit from the lack of alternatives on offer. Make no mistake, if a viable alternative was in the wings leadership speculation would be inevitable.

The challenge for the government isn’t simply to overhaul Labor on the two-party vote, it’s to prevent One Nation eating up Coalition primary votes. That’s what happened in the Longman by-election, a dangerous sign of potential things to come in wider Queensland at the general election. Equally, One Nation’s vote went up two points in the latest Newspoll.

There are no guarantees One Nation will send preferences the Coalition’s way, but even if it does there are also no guarantees its supporters will follow the how to vote card.

We know there are always leakages from minor parties preferencing the majors.

Peter van Onselen is a professor at The University of Western Australia and Griffith University and a former Sky News presenter