Yesterday’s Newspoll has sapped an already deflated Coalition of what little confidence remained.
It was quite simply a momentum killer. Relentless campaigning on boats and the economy designed to scare voters off supporting Labor has seemingly fallen flat. Scott Morrison looks to have zero cut-through with an electorate that has made up its collective minds.
And it’s no wonder. The distractions have been never ending. The Prime Minister put his foot in his mouth on International Women’s Day. New cabinet minister Linda Reynolds did the same over the weekend, highlighting her ignorance on wages polices. Tony Abbott landed yet another policy backflip on climate change action, this time designed to save his blue-ribbon seat of Warringah. And all of that before we even consider the shenanigans inside the Nationals, with talk of a leadership spill on April Fool’s Day (appropriate, really).
The above all occurred while Newspoll was in the field and when the government would have hoped the focus was shifting to the looming budget and the planned return to surplus.
All hope will be lost if in a fortnight from now, when the next Newspoll is released just a day before the budget, no improvement registers. The Coalition will risk an even more disorderly countdown to the election, which could have the flow-on effect of further blowing out the margin.
While it is true John Howard called the 2004 election against Mark Latham with Newspoll showing the same numbers — going on to increase his majority — the differences in government stability between then and now could hardly be greater.
Discipline is in short supply at the moment, and the challenges are coming from all angles for Morrison. Independents causing difficulties in traditionally safe Coalition seats, marginal seat problems, including retirements, frontbenchers deserting the government, and huge problems raising money given the low expectations of victory.
While the Prime Minister and his supporters plan on “playing to win” until polling day, strategists are already sandbagging seats and individual members are retreating into their electoral backyards hoping to minimise the expected national swing on their turf. It’s a case of every man (and some women) for themselves.
Peter van Onselen is a professor in politics at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University
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