Moderates are walking away from the Liberal Party altogether

Malcolm Turnbull during his final press conference. Picture: AP.

Today’s Newspoll really has highlighted the skills and abilities of the coup plotters – their capacity to make a difficult electoral position catastrophically worse.

Four consecutive two party preferred results showing the government trailing Labor by a mere two points under Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership – 49 to 51 per cent – have been replaced by two polls with Labor’s lead blowing out to 56 to 44 per cent. No honeymoon there.

Scott Morrison clearly has a lot of work to do to even save the furniture at the next election, but the margin undoubtedly would have been even worse had the reactionaries gotten everything they wanted, including Peter Dutton as PM.

Remember the last Newspoll had support for him as leader within the wider public at just six per cent.

We hear a lot from the hard right within the Liberal Party about the so-called “base”, as though it doesn’t come from any other ideological grouping within the right beyond those few reactionaries they chat to in their silos.

While it is true that reactionaries are disproportionately dominant within a party membership which continues to shrink and become less reflective of the wider community, the voting base of the Liberals is much more diverse than a reactionary rump.

And today’s Newspoll highlights that it isn’t impressed by what’s gone on in recent weeks, clearly. Labor’s primary vote is up to 42 per cent, remarkable given that Green preferences almost entirely also flow its way. The Coalition’s support is now in the low 30s, as bad as it has been since Tony Abbott was PM.

Moderate Liberals appear to now be walking away from the Liberal Party altogether, unable to find reasons to support it given what was done to both Turnbull and Julie Bishop. The business community too is unlikely to support this government, which will be an issue for fundraising, and business people writ large probably won’t vote for it either the way they might have when Turnbull was in charge.

Why would anyone want to reward what’s gone on? Other than the small band of voters who can never bring themselves to change their votes from one election to the next.

Morrison’s folksy style is aimed at appealing to outer metropolitan swinging voters in the way that John Howard always did. And it’s true that this was a problem for Turnbull. But Morrison is no Howard.

Howard grew up in south western Sydney, Morrison spent much of his life in the heart of Sydney’s eastern suburbs. He is as blue blood as Turnbull ever was.

Howard was a solicitor who became a law partner before entering politics, Morrison was a Liberal Party hack from way back, rising to the role of state director.

Howard’s style was interactive and engaging, using talk back radio to directly address voters. His ability to listen and respond was one of Howard’s greatest strengths. Morrison shouts better than he talks. He lectures better than he interacts. In short charisma is lacking.

For all the problems Liberals had during the Turnbull years they enjoyed the benefit of a PM who helped drag a sagging party vote north. Instead of nurturing that advantage they got rid of it, and the consequences are there for all to see.

Peter van Onselen is a professor at The University of Western Australia and Griffith University.