Commentators, vested interests pushing unrealistic calls for Turnbull to go

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull attends an Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Small Business Roundtable earlier this week. Photo: Kym Smith

The fever-pitched calls for Malcolm Turnbull to resign or be sacked by his parliamentary colleagues this year lack realism.

Even a defeat in the Bennelong by-election, as damaging as it would be for the Prime Minister, wouldn’t happen in time to spark a leadership showdown in 2017.

Who would want to take the job by force right now anyway? Who would praise Turnbull for cutting a running before a series of difficult decisions are finalised were he to voluntarily step aside? Neither scenario is realistic; both are being driven by excited commentators or spiteful hissing from one-time vested players.

Julie Bishop is now touted as the popular alternative, courtesy of a recent Newspoll that showed more voters want her as prime minister than Turnbull. But senior colleagues question whether she’s up to the job. Yesterday’s call for a formal investigation into cabinet leaks – turning a half day story into one which kicks along for days – illustrates that the foreign minister isn’t as adroit at handling domestic political issues as she’d need to be in order to succeed in the top job.

Foreign Minister and Deputy Leader Julie Bishop. Photo: AAP

Perhaps she’ll become a serious option late next year if polls continue to sag and the government gets desperate, but even then Bishop would face the same bile and bitterness from reactionary commentators that Turnbull endures now.

Either way, why would she or anyone else want the job at this point in the electoral cycle? The debate over how to incorporate religious protections into a same sex marriage amendment, the fight over energy policy and of course the citizenship saga all remain unresolved. No new leader wants to be handed that bread basket.

Were Turnbull to walk away now he’d be accused of being a selfish MP who didn’t put the nation first (apparently that accusation is already being thrown around). If Turnbull’s colleagues forced him out the new leader wouldn’t even get a honeymoon; instead they would be instantly saddled by the grab bag of issues.

Beyond Bishop other named contenders include Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton and of course shock jock favourite Tony Abbott.

A Tony Abbott comeback as Prime Minister is not likely. Photo: Kym Smith

Yes Abbott has support amongst reactionary commentators who talk to a narrow band of the Liberal “base” (otherwise known as a moribund clique) but that is all. He’d be savaged more widely were a return to the prime ministership to happen.

Even an Abbott comeback next year – when Turnbull may face more realistic leadership pressures from others – isn’t going to happen. What would the argument be: Turnbull has hit the 30 consecutive Newspoll benchmark he used to prise Abbott out of the prime ministership, so as a party we have to return to the man who hit the 30 mark first? It’s ridiculous beyond words.

That leaves Dutton and Morrison. Neither are realistic candidates during this year’s so-called “killing season”. Realism dictates that Dutton doesn’t have the popular support or name recognition to take over. Besides, as one of Turnbull’s conservative Pretorian guards (the other being Mathias Cormann) why would he risk the power and influence he has for a failed tilt at the leadership? Especially when his Queensland seat is on a knife’s edge.

Immigration Minister Peter Dutton. Photo: Kym Smith

Morrison is in the midst of an economic sell job counting down to MYEFO next month as well as next year’s May budget. Even a serious tilt at Turnbull’s job next year could only happen off the back of good economic management, which would likely lift Turnbull’s stocks as well as the Treasurer.

Treasurer Scott Morrison. Photo: AAP

Claims that something might happen on the leadership front this year are utter rubbish simply because of the known transactional costs attached to ousting a PM in a messy and bloody coup. This is front and centre in the minds of the dozen backbenchers from across the party I spoke to this week when looking into claims that Turnbull’s leadership might not make it to 2018.

Calm down everyone and enjoy the summer – once we get through an albeit tumultuous final sitting period for 2017.

Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics at the University of Western Australia