As we enter the final sitting period before the budget, which will quickly give way to the election campaign, it has become obvious Labor and the Greens, in conjunction with the house crossbench, control the legislative agenda.
The government lost the Medivac vote, had to withdraw its “big stick” energy legislation, and now looks likely to give in to Labor amendments to its small business legislation. Throw in an expected shift on a royal commission into disability and the government is legislatively limping to the election, reacting to Labor’s whims.
Yet such tactical victories for Labor (and its allies) won’t necessarily reap strategic gains come election time. Last week’s historic lost vote on the floor of the house was an insiders defeat for the Coalition. In voter land, the take-out of the week was a new set of differences between how Labor and the Coalition approach border protection. That’s manna from heaven for Scott Morrison, even if Coalition MPs overestimate the benefits.
Even though the Coalition is struggling to control the legislative agenda, the political agenda seems fixated on the economic issues Liberals want to talk about and boats.
There are early signs that Josh Frydenberg’s focus on Labor’s tax policies is cutting through with voters and shoring up the Coalition’s base.
While Team Morrison in theory is playing to win, more likely it can at best ameliorate the size of defeat by controlling the agenda between now and the election. It just needs to get through a disempowering parliamentary period, after which its minority government weaknesses will be less telling.
All you need to do is track the electorates the Prime Minister is visiting. With the exception of the flood-affected north Queensland seat of Herbert (which the government believes it can win back from Labor), those seats visited highlight a holding pattern. The Coalition is looking to do well enough at the election to fight on in opposition as a force rather than as a farce.
The gifts it has been given, on border protection and tax, may help with that.
Before then, it has four sitting days this week and a few more around the budget to survive. All of which will be tactically difficult, serving to highlight that the Morrison government is legislatively surviving on its knees ahead of an election it hopes to fight on its feet.
Peter van Onselen is a professor of politics at the University of Western Australia and Griffith University.
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