McGowan's lot: sit tight, hope for the least worst

IF ever there was evidence of just how tarnished the Labor brand is at the moment, it is on display in today's Western Australia Newspoll.

Despite Opposition Leader Mark McGowan registering a preferred premier rating near on par with Colin Barnett and more than half the electorate being satisfied with the job he is doing, the party figures say he is four weeks away from presiding over an electoral catastrophe for the WA Labor Party.

Forget the slight improvement in Labor's vote compared with the previous Newspoll. It is nowhere near where it needs to be for Labor to seriously challenge Barnett's government.

Perhaps voters are so happy with the job McGowan is doing as opposition leader they want to give him four more years at it. The problem for McGowan is there are any number of precedents of popular opposition leaders losing elections, after which the taint of defeat reduces their personal standing in the electorate.

A primary vote of 35 per cent and a two-party vote of 43 per cent for the Labor Party wouldn't just see hopeful candidates fail to pick up seats - existing Labor members would lose, too, especially MPs in regional areas where the Royalties for Regions scheme has been a popular success. That would see the Nationals as the big winners at this election.

Clearly, voters like what they see of McGowan and they believe he is up to the job of being premier. But just not yet.

That is almost certainly because the Labor brand is one that voters aren't prepared to reward with government, even in WA, given the controversies going on nationally.

The frustrating thing for McGowan must surely be that his team consists of a number of former ministers, himself included, from Geoff Gallop and Alan Carpenter's two-term governments.

There is no reason for voters to think that WA Labor isn't ready to govern.

McGowan must now decide: does he play it safe during the campaign in the hope of eking out a respectable loss, which may not see him vilified in the aftermath? Or does he look to use his popularity to improve Labor's fortunes, perhaps by adopting a risky strategy such as challenging the unpopular policies emanating out of Canberra?

The latter option would pit him against a prime minister as well as a premier, thus elevating the WA state campaign to national significance.

Peter van Onselen is a professor at the University of Western Australia