Hems fall as the economy stalls

THERE are several theories about the link between fashion and broader economic circumstances.

THERE are several theories about the link between fashion and broader economic circumstances.

The most famous was put forward by a US economist, George Taylor, in 1926, positing that women's hemlines rose in good times and fell in bad.

What I find most interesting about this theory is that Taylor was 25 at the time it was published, which sort of makes sense: he had probably been studying hemlines since his teenage years.

More recently the US chairman of Estee Lauder argued that lipstick sales rose in a recession.

The argument is that when women cannot justify spending money on big-ticket fashion items they indulge themselves in a range of quality lipsticks.

The Economist matched lipstick sales with a range of economic indicators and found an entirely random correlation.

Another recession myth exploded.

Finally, last June Britain's The Independent carried a report that Japanese social researchers had found a positive correlation between women's hairstyles and economic performance.

Apparently, women wear their hair short in a recession and long in a boom.

The logic is that when women can't spend money on clothes they choose a hairstyle that offers greater scope for variety and you can do so much more with short hair than long hair. (I would have thought the opposite, but what would I know about women's hairstyling.) The point is that there is an expectation that recessions drive different consumer behaviour.

To some extent this is stating the bleeding obvious: the money flow slows, which forces consumers to select where their resources are directed.

I think recession spending is more than simply a "flight to value".

There is a different psychology to consumer behaviour in a recession that I think would very much play out in the fashion business.

During the economic boom the fashion industry was geared around the notion of the individual as celebrity.

The reason is that in a boom we are confident in who we are, in our employability, and perhaps even in our desirability.

As a consequence we look for fashion that enables us to stand out in the crowd. 

Design and designers quickly evolved during the boom to emphasise the quirky and the individualistic.

Regardless of whether hemlines went up or down in the late 1990s they mysteriously shifted from horizontal to daringly angled.

Some hemlines were even jagged. (I notice these things.)

I can remember at the time of this Great Hemline Shift being greatly puzzled as to why a woman would have "a deliberately crooked hem".

The deeply subliminal answer was that the design had already achieved its end: the wearer was being noticed. She stood apart from the crowd.

It could even be argued that the use of gel to spike hair was in part a broader fashion conspiracy to showcase the individual, since no two spiked hairdos are exactly the same.

But with recession comes a different set of driving forces.

No longer is there an inherent desire to stand apart. Instead the driving need is quite the opposite: it is to fit in.

In a threatening world we want to retreat to the safety of the herd, the tribe, the family, the community. How many times have you heard the word community this year?

And during the boom, how often did you hear about the need to celebrate our wonderful individuality? All of Generation Y were individuals with special talent and abilities that had to be admired, nurtured, celebrated.

In a scary world, those making the case for individuality would be viewed as being a tad frivolous. What matters is unity and community.

If my assessment is correct, the hottest fashion colours of the recession are likely to be those that offer the greatest range of hues on a single theme: sombre black, brown and grey (or should that be "midnight", "earth" and "slate").

In such a world, garment structure would cease to signal the quirky and the offbeat, but rather it would reinforce the inherent value and strength of conformity. A return to traditional design should do the trick.

None of this off-the-shoulder or skewed-hemline business. Or, and I saw this during the boom, unhemmed hemlines with bits of thread dangling in an entirely wanton and wilfully random manner!

Recession hemlines, on the other hand, would be different: ramrod straight and neatly tucked into their rightful position.

Perhaps the recession-inspired need for conformity goes further than the possible use of traditional lines in garment design. Badges and symbols could be incorporated to project to others the notion that you "belong". Epaulets and other militaria achieve this nicely.

Although I must say that Michael Jackson has given this paraphernalia such an edgy name that I doubt it would work with a wider market.

No, what is required is some form of symbolism that connects the individual with the tribe.

A good example is those red and yellow plastic bracelets that everyone wore a few years ago.

I believe ripped and torn jeans have been a powerful symbol of the boom. "I stand apart because my jeans do not conform."

Perhaps during the recession, designer ripped jeans will subside in favour of traditional styles.

The reason is this: in a boom a designer rip is your connection to artful bohemia, whereas in a recession it just looks poor.

If you put all of this together you have the recession driving new consumer behaviour in fashion, with women wearing bright lipstick, short hair and long straight hemlines in a traditional couture constructed in earthy hues, which possibly also sports some form of insignia. (Sounds a lot like military fatigues to me.)

But add in a groovy red plastic bracelet to showcase the fact that you belong to a bold band of the artful cognoscenti, and you have the look that will most surely dominate this year's recession.

Bernard Salt is a KPMG Partner [e-mail]. Track Bernard on twitter.com