Gun to head won't bring a Gonski deal

JULIA Gillard's education funding dominos are falling the wrong way for her to achieve a substantial educational and political victory by June 30 - a crucial measure of success by a self-imposed deadline.

Although offering more money to seal the deal, Labor is running out of the other pivotal element - time.

Campbell Newman's direct confrontation over the Gonski reforms on political, financial and educational grounds, suggests Queensland - like Western Australia and large sections of the non-government school sector - are angry about the process and unlikely to agree to the deal, even if other states do.

The Prime Minister's chances of getting majority support for the Gonski school funding proposals written into law by the end of this month - as a political ramp to the September election - are being severely damaged by her setting of an almost impossible deadline, holding a gun to the head of state leaders and attempting to divide and conquer the states and non-government school sector.

Gillard's plans have always had dual targets and processes: introduce educational funding reforms on a principle of national equity for all school students; and produce a successful and positive political outcome from her own initiative, which can be used as a contrast to Tony Abbott on her chosen ground of schools.

But from the beginning the negotiations and likelihood of success have been blighted by an unworkable deadline, a lack of detail, the inability to spell out real funding outcomes, oppressive secrecy, attempts to set one state or non-government group against another and changes to offers driven by desperation which undermine the long-term educational objectives.

The prime concern of everyone in the system is now what happens next year, not funding projections for 2019. Queensland, like Victoria, has become openly critical of Labor's plans and lack of good will although it has fallen short of complete rejection.

Like the concerns of the non-government school sector, Newman's criticisms are mostly directed at the impossible deadline and lack of willingness to truly engage in negotiations.

If the Coalition states (except NSW) refuse to accept the deal Gillard can claim a political conspiracy. But if the deal fails because of a lack of preparedness to work together, the failure will be more evidence of Labor's placing politics over policy and process.

A half-hearted agreement could become as damaging an example of failure to govern competently as spending billions in mining tax revenue that was never collected.