Will Coalition unseat Malcolm Turnbull as leader or drift on to defeat?

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has now suffered 13 negative Newspoll results.

The big problem for our PM at the moment is that what may have been seen as a clever, catchy line which would work brilliantly on a TV or radio news grab is forever on the record. The PM etched his words in stone.

The cleverness of the use of 30 consecutive Newspolls being lost in a row by the Coalition helped in unseating Tony Abbott but now the words have come back to haunt and tease Turnbull every time another Newspoll lights up the front page of this newspaper.

The PM became so desperate that he chanced it all on a giveaway, supposedly popular budget. The expected bounce in the polls, however, just didn’t happen. He threw caution, not to mention his and his party’s reputation as safe minders of the national till, to the wind.

He banked everything on breaking the cycle of losing Newspolls. Just one poll where the government was in the lead would stop the media and his caucus from keeping watch on the ever-growing number of negative Newspolls.

Unfortunately for Turnbull, the budget was akin to the skyrockets we used to light on the now long-abandoned cracker night. They would take off in a blaze of coloured, shining lights and fairly quickly fizzle out. The budget fizzled far more quickly than Malcolm ever thought possible.

Don’t be fooled by the government spin merchants telling you that they had never expected a lift. On the night before the post-budget Newspoll was published, half the Cabinet and a host of PM staffers and Liberal officials were ringing around anyone they knew who worked for The Australian desperately trying to get an early reading on the result. They were all certain that the boost would come and were devastated when it didn’t.

Now as the 13th losing Newspoll has been counted, we all await the next as the count down to 30 continues. If that magic number is reached (or should I say when?) what happens next? To kill the boss or drift on to certain election defeat, that will be the question. While everyone in the government will deny publicly that anyone is even contemplating a challenge on Turnbull’s leadership, several of them are and are looking at getting the job done by the end of June. I believe these MPs and ministers are overly optimistic about the speed of a challenge — once the count hits 20, the momentum for change may well be unstoppable.

The very same bedwetters who unseated Tony Abbott in favour of Malcolm Turnbull are once again buying nappies and padded underpants. The more vulnerable backbenchers will focus more and more on losing their seats. Self-interest remains a mighty force to be reckoned with.

These same members will have to be convinced that change can turn anything around. To them I would say that they should have a look at the Keating and Turnbull ascendancies. They both achieved one more election than their parties were probably entitled to.

What is so tantalising about the to kill or not-to-kill question is the uncertainty that surrounds it. A new Leader does not guarantee success but holds out the prospect of being in the contest with some chance of winning. Hope springs eternal are words which the PM should be thinking about.

He must be hoping that his troops are not abandoning hope. Perhaps his lot is hopeless.