The number’s up for a disappointing Turnbull

Tony Abbott must surely be entitled to hurl Turnbull’s words back in his face.

Malcolm Turnbull will hate getting up this morning.

The entire nation, it would seem, contrary to the way Australians think and act normally, knows that today is the day the Prime Minister faces 30 Newspolls in a row with the Coalition trailing Labor.

Everyone knows this was the benchmark set by Turnbull as the clincher for ending Tony Abbott’s prime ministership. Turnbull used it to his advantage and the really damning four words which he was so proud of at the time have come back to haunt him — “The trajectory is clear.”

If he was right, then Abbott has to be entitled to hurl Turnbull’s words back in his face.

The efforts of the Liberals to spin their way out of this ­Newspoll-led embarrassment have been going on for months.

It is ironic that even a couple of months ago these Coalition ­loyalists knew this losing trend was certain to continue. Indeed, continued failure is what the Coalition has come to accept as its lot in life.

What a turnaround that really is. Can anyone recall the high hopes Australians had for Turnbull? Expectations were raised by the Coalition, and Australians, desperate for some real leadership, invested their hopes for the future in him.

The 2014 budget was a political cock-up for Abbott that presented Turnbull with a raison d’etre for undermining him. Here was the first real sign that the Liberals had abandoned what had been at their core.

No longer did debt and deficit really matter, despite the way Abbott had campaigned so ruthlessly on Labor’s over-spending. What was worse was that within that budget were two policies which would haunt Abbott for the rest of that year until they were finally withdrawn under the cover of the Christmas holidays.

The first he considered his signature policy. This was the infamous maternity leave idea which in its original form allowed a massive payment for a woman who was already earning a hefty salary.

Trying to convince a single-income family with a couple of kids who were battling to survive in the suburbs or the regions that paying a woman more than their annual income to have six months off to have a baby was doomed to failure.

The second policy was the $7.50 co-payment, a clear breach of the election promise to leave the health portfolio alone. Abbott foolishly first tried to pretend he had not broken a promise and then tried reducing the amount of the co-payment. Neither worked. I had spoken to Abbott at an AFL game at the SCG and told him in July 2014 to drop those policies. When he told me “never”, I told him that he would have to relent because Australians would force him to.

Five months went by with the then prime minister losing skin every day before the inevitable occurred and the policies disappeared. Some months after the budget, a party revolt occurred and an empty chair received more than 30 votes in the Liberal partyroom. This was a clear signal that either or both Joe Hockey and Peta Credlin had to go. Hockey had become a problem not only because of the 2014 budget but because he had made a silly remark about people out in the suburbs not needing to drive cars. He was a political liability. Ministers and backbenchers resented Credlin’s power and position, and the leaks against her were as constant as they were vicious.

Abbott has been vilified so much that the person he really is rarely sees the light of day. In my experience he is a very good human being and, in this instance, proved how loyal he could be. He point-blank refused to sack either Hockey or Credlin, and Turnbull used this cleverly.

Abbott’s loyalty could be badly misplaced. The country was outraged with the news that then speaker Bronwyn Bishop had taken a helicopter to get from Melbourne to Geelong. Days later she pointedly refused to apologise. Despite the nationwide calls for her dismissal, Abbott stuck by his friend a further fortnight, and took a hell of a beating for it. Bishop repaid him by voting for Turnbull.

Malcolm Turnbull

Newspoll: What Liberal MPs said

“We are in a close, tight political environment. The next election is absolutely there to be won”.

Tony Abbott

Newspoll: What Liberal MPs said

“That’s what I think we need to focus on today, being the best possible government with the strongest possible policies”.

Julie Bishop

Newspoll: What Liberal MPs said

“The public are expressing an opinion, but it will come to a point where they will have to make a decision about who they trust ... and I’m confident that that will be Malcolm Turnbull”.

Angus Taylor

Newspoll: What Liberal MPs said

“What (voters) don’t want is a Shorten government, people want us to succeed”.

Mathias Cormann

Newspoll: What Liberal MPs said

“It’s not unusual for incumbent governments in between elections being behind in the polls, I mean we’re not actually that far behind, truth be told”.

Eric Abetz

Newspoll: What Liberal MPs said

“Jumping at shadows at the Newspoll, or indeed 30 Newspolls, is never going to be the basis for good, sound government”.

It is fair to say that given all that above, there was the fertile ground of fear of losing that Turnbull was able to cultivate. A disillusioned, disgruntled Coalition began to hope again that its rule could go on and on. A fed-up electorate saw a chance for respite from years of bad news. Instead they got Turnbull. The main feature of his time in office has been disappointment.

Today and over the next few weeks we will hear about how many jobs have been created. Josh Frydenberg has even claimed that Turnbull was elected to bring back cabinet government.

The truth, which you will not hear from anyone in the Coalition today, is that Turnbull was given the top job to restore some confidence to an electorate which had grown tired of nil wages growth while prices continued to rise. He was elected to, as John Howard once promised, make the voters “relaxed and comfortable”.

Political intelligence has been completely lacking in this prime minister. The Barnaby Joyce scandal is still so new but I can easily recollect poor Scott Morrison talking up an increase to the GST and a change to negative gearing. These ideas were on the table for only a short time before Turnbull’s lack of courage saw him pull the rug out from under his Treasurer.

Turnbull almost certainly can’t win, but such a poisoned chalice has his job become that nobody else wants it, and no one else is seen as worthy anyway. Isolated, friendless and embattled, Turnbull will limp on for as long as he can.