Summer of blackouts could save Malcolm Turnbull’s skin

There may be a way for Malcolm Turnbull to prolong his leadership or perhaps even rescue his doomed tenure in the top job. Picture: AAP

There may be a way for Malcolm Turnbull to prolong his leadership or perhaps even rescue his doomed tenure in the top job.

This summer will be a critical period for Australia’s political leaders. There will be an election in South Australia in March and the future of a very shaky Weatherill government will be on the block. Whether there are blackouts in Adelaide will have an enormous influence on the country.

The Prime Minister needs blackouts, not just in SA but in ­Victoria, NSW and Queensland, to shore up his position. Secretly, buried deep in his subconscious, Turnbull would be praying for a hot summer. If ever he needed his long-held belief in climate change to be right, it will be in the period between December and March.

This week Josh Frydenberg dropped the strongest hint yet that the government will walk away from the only recommendation of the Finkel report that any Australian can recall — the 42.3 per cent clean energy target. At this stage it would appear the government will not seek to come up with a lesser figure but will walk away from setting a target at all.

Two factors have contributed mightily to this decision. Firstly, Tony Abbott, that pesky reminder of the brutal way Turnbull came to power, has raised the prospect of crossing the floor if any attempt is made to set a clean energy target. Those remaining Abbott hardcore supporters would no doubt join him, creating a crisis Turnbull can ill afford. Secondly, the Prime Minister has come to realise what his ­Energy and Environment Minister has been telling him for some time is right — ­energy policy can provide a point of difference with Labor that could work in the government’s favour.

Nothing might change political fortunes more rapidly than a summer when airconditioners are not working. It will not take long for the public to work out that an over-reliance on clean energy is at the core of their discomfort.

At that stage, while the run of losing Newspolls will have hit the magic 30 mark, there might be a real change in political fortunes. You can expect to hear Turnbull using the term “Blackout Bill” with deadly effect. It is hard to imagine how Labor will justify its overwhelming support of subsidies for clean energy and for clean energy targets in the light of a summer with the power failures so many experts regard as inevitable.

Having read Frydenberg’s speech on Monday I found the welter of figures and claims about the reasons for the massive price increases for electricity in recent years, so complex that they will be difficult to convey to the mob. Frydenberg has his head and his heart in the right place and he tried hard to be definite about the future of government energy policy, but he didn’t quite make it. What is holding him back, of course, is the legendary procrastination of his boss.

The Prime Minister is an Olympic gold standard ditherer. You will all ­remember the farcical path of tax reform under Turnbull’s leadership. An increase in the GST, a fiddle on negative gearing, and other maybes were taken on and off the table for a full six months after the last election. Scott Morrison was sent out to run ideas up the flagpole only for the Turnbull to cut the ground from under him again and again.

Turnbull’s popularity sunk like a stone and incredibly enough he learnt nothing form the experience. Even now the PM hesitates when the one chance to save his leadership looks him in the eye.