Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull sinking with no lifeline in sight

When the Australian parliament sits the week after next, the Coalition and the embattled Prime Minister face the prospect of running aground in a swamp of conundrums and dilemmas. No one can be certain if the government, let alone Malcolm Turnbull, will survive what is bound to be a tumultuous week in Canberra.

Under what rock John Alexander, the member for the suburban Sydney seat of Bennelong, has been living for the past three months, we don’t know. He has done his party a massive disservice by not having the courage to put his hand up and exit the crowded closet that has been sheltering political cowardice. His resignation and the subsequent by-election present a major obstacle to a desperately needed period of calm waters and light breezes.

The extraordinary partisanship of Christopher Pyne on this issue is now an added discomfort. Pyne has become a major hypocrite and that comes from someone who has always liked him. His performance yesterday where he criticised the opposition for lacking integrity on the citizenship saga was outrageous. To be followed by the Prime Minister taking the same tack rang alarm bells. After slamming Bill Shorten for running a “protection racket” for Labor members Turnbull says should be referred to the High Court, our PM looked even worse than what he has over the past few agonising months. Apparently, the ego and the arrogance have reached a point where he believes all Australians are mugs who do not possess the ability to remember.

That Turnbull could offer that commentary after doing far worse with Barnaby Joyce demonstrates how duplicitous he has become. This is the same man who defied logic and proper governance by allowing Joyce to roll along in his ministerial office and vote in parliament as if there was no problem. All of this was done because our PM was so clever and so prescient that he knew Joyce would be cleared. He even went as far as to say “and the High Court will so hold”. The High Court then unanimously held against Joyce, making Turnbull look even more ridiculous.

Our PM will scour the bottom of any available barrel to seek every ounce of political advantage. Is it any wonder that Australians view politicians so poorly?

When she beat Sophie Mirabella for the seat of Indi, Cathy McGowan would never have expected to be in such a powerful position, that her vote may determine if the Turnbull government continues to rule. Pyne had no doubt that this independent would give her support to the government for the referral of two Labor MPs to the High Court. While I acknowledge that McGowan has indicated she will support the government on supply and confidence votes, I have no indication so far that she is now to be considered a solid Coalition number. For a woman who needs the support of Labor voters and/or Labor preferences to survive, this would be, as Sir Humphrey would say, “courageous”. Most of the crossbenchers put a high price on the value of their independence. In a few days’ time we can all see what price McGowan has on hers.

The two Labor MPs in the citizenship milieu are Justine Keay and Susan Lamb. In their case there is no doubt that they applied before they nominated to extinguish citizenship in Britain. If that is so, then Labor is probably correct to defend their right to continue to sit in parliament on the basis of the “reasonable steps” test as stated in Sykes v Cleary.

While government MPs look to that next crucial sitting with some trepidation they should not be the only ones with furrowed brows. The chief executives and board members of the big four banks should be losing some sleep too. Labor’s move to create a royal commission into the banking industry was defeated by just one vote. While the industry is bitterly opposed to this move, its only allies are finance journalists, some economists and the Coalition.

Arrayed against them is the vast majority of the Australian people. Since that vote in parliament, the banks have been mired in even more strife. Their dalliance with manipulating the bank swap rates saw them firmly on the wrong side of ASIC and two have settled by paying more than $50 million each.

The government needs all hands on deck because the parliamentary numbers are a mess. In the arcane way in which parliament works, the government will have 73 votes plus the Speaker, who can vote only in the event of a tie. Labor will have 69 votes and there are five independents making a total of 74. This means that if the independents side with Labor on any issue at all then the government has lost its majority on the floor of the house. Curiously, while the house can vote on motions of its own with a simple majority, the opposition and the independents when united, still do not command an absolute majority, which has now moved from 76 to 75. An absolute majority is required to introduce bills. The potential for disaster lies with the power of the house to amend whatever the government might bring on. While Pyne seeks to refer two Labor MPs to the High Court, the house would be able to add some Liberals.

Of course, all this assumes that Rebekha Sharkie, the Xenophon Team MP for Mayo, is in there and voting. Given the parlous state of the parliamentary numbers you would be entitled to query again the awful judgment of the PM. He called her and urged her to refer herself to the High Court. Now he can’t be sure he can refer her but he can be assured she is viewing the PM in a new, and not so positive light.

Malcolm Turnbull is being buffeted adrift on a cruel sea. The sitting of the parliament on November 27 is far more likely to throw him a concrete slab than a lifeline.