PM can’t afford to add Wentworth to his woes

Then treasurer Scott Morrison beside then prime minister Malcolm Turnbull in August.

One of the great disappointments in life is that all honeymoons end. After the initial burst of passion an adjustment occurs. We settle into comfortable relationships that stand the test of time or we can fall out of love — sometimes towards amicable separation, other times traumatic divorce.

Scott Morrison’s honeymoon is clearly over. He is doing really well on the likeability front and that may give him a chance of finishing strongly and making a real contest of a May election next year. His problem is the tensions that caused the implosion of his party just six weeks ago are still simmering. Malcolm Turnbull is demonstrating all the faults that caused him to lose his job.

From his plush abode in New York Turnbull has offered little comfort to the Prime Minister, even though Morrison loyally stuck with him long after it was fashionable to so do. Turnbull’s meanness of spirit is being felt as he refuses to lift a finger for Dave Sharma, the Liberal candidate in his old seat. A half-baked tweet a week ago is all he has offered. What’s more, his son Alex has asked voters to choose anyone but Sharma. The apple has not fallen far from the tree.

Divided Liberals were the story long before Turnbull was voted out by those who put him in, and that hasn’t changed. The soap opera over who was bullying whom went on a month. A gaggle of female Liberals, and there are precious few of them, whinged to the press gallery about it.

Julia Banks announced she would not run again because of the nastiness, and she was the only Liberal to win a seat from Labor in 2016. She had Buckley’s of holding on next time and lacked the courage to battle on against the odds. All she and her sister whingers did was to draw more attention to the contrast with the number of women Labor has in parliament. Then Ann Sudmalis announced she was calling it quits. In her case her local opponent had worked the branches and she had lost the numbers for preselection. She too cried “bully” and the saga kept on embarrassing Morrison, even though he inherited the problem.

Just when the PM thought it was safe to go back into the water, the Nationals and the ever-dangerous, ever-bitter Barnaby Joyce left the reservation. Discontent with the leadership of Michael McCormack was bubbling over this week and the only thing that surprised me was why it took the Nationals two months to work out they made a mistake, rather than realising it after his first press ­conference.

One of the difficulties of commentary is that attacking a person’s performance can sometimes look like an attack on character. I have never met McCormack and he may indeed be a terrific bloke. He is, however, an awful choice as leader. He lacks personality, has no capacity to convey strength or warmth, and carries no weight at the dispatch box.

That Joyce has the gall to ring his colleagues with a view to a comeback is extraordinary. Having brought his party and the government to the brink of collapse, he now says this should all be forgiven and he should resume where he left off. The Nationals may have been stupid enough to put McCormack in the top job, but even on their worst day I could not conceive of them being crazy enough to bring back Barnaby.

My observations of parliament in recent years suggest to me that the best performer among the Nationals is Victorian MP Darren Chester. He is, however, quite unpopular among his own group. He was demoted by Joyce for openly stating the blindingly obvious: that scandal-plagued leader had to go. He was given Veterans Affairs, which sadly gets a new minister every few months since the Coali­tion took office.

If there is to be a change, David Littleproud looks like the best option. He got off to a shaky start and has not handled the drought well, but he will be the last MP standing.

Although I stress again that the PM is not responsible for all these problems, it is his job to fix them — and with tomorrow’s by-election he has no time to waste.

Wentworth has an importance way beyond an electorate that is in no way representative of middle Australia. The incomes of people in suburbs such as Double Bay, Darling Point, Woollahra, Paddington, Bellevue Hill, Rose Bay and Vaucluse are many times those of average earners. There are no big local issues because most of those people can afford to buy whatever they need. These people overwhelmingly have voted Liberal for ages, yet the Liberals are in panic over what they fear the voters may do to them.

It may be a unique electorate, but tomorrow’s result will have a profound effect on the government. The Liberal brand is severely damaged, with party members’ morale at rock bottom. Losing an “unlosable” seat would be a massive blow to the Prime Minister and the Liberal membership, which has substantially diminished. A loss would be a bridge too far and would make subsequent campaigning way too difficult.

What’s more, the government’s one-seat majority is at stake. The best the Coalition can hope for is that its well-credentialed candidate scrapes home. My view is that a narrow victory for Sharma is the likeliest result, but it’s far from locked in. Even so, a swing of more than 12 per cent is certain — an appalling result for Morrison.

Bill Shorten will dine out on this, and he already seems to have more than enough to feed on for the six months before the next federal election.