Kerryn Phelps’ win causes incalculable damage to Liberal brand

It was reasonable to expect the Wentworth by-election was going to be close. My view, put privately and publicly, was that Kerryn Phelps might get a swing of ­10-12 per cent and make a contest of it before the Liberals’ Dave Sharma took home the biscuits.

In my wildest dreams I did not foresee the massacre to come. Phelps and her supporters danced the night away as a stunned nation looked on. When the Liberals lose booths in Double Bay on primary votes, you know a historic political event may be unfolding before your eyes.

The blame game has just started, as well it should. The damage to the Liberal brand is incalculable. Already on the ropes, for the Coalition government the count has begun. The one thing we can all agree on is that the Liberal candidate, the well-credentialed Sharma, was not to blame. He was presented with an impossible task but battled on with enthusiasm. The antics of his mates in Canberra did not help him one little bit. He is a good candidate and it is to be hoped he won’t be lost to politics.

Scott Morrison’s speech struck the wrong tone. It is certainly true that the manner of Malcolm Turnbull’s ousting was the biggest single negative for the government. Anger was palpable. Voters voiced some of this displeasure at the booths but to just get up and say the events of two months ago are responsible for this and wander off into the night is way short of what is necessary. The Prime Minister cannot continue to offer the same excuse each time a disaster occurs. At some point, and I would suggest the time is nigh, he must say he is hearing the message, which is that the government looks hopeless and chaotic and the mob has definitely worked that out.

You have to feel sorry for Sharma given the Canberra daily shambles over the course of the past week or so. The PM himself got into a tangle over gays and religious freedom in schools and had to reverse an earlier blunder with a new line a few days later. The fiasco of the Senate leader, Mathias Cormann, being forced to take responsibility for voting for Pauline Hanson’s pathetic “it’s OK to be white” stand was embarrassing. Barnaby Joyce set the hares running about him having a go for Michael McCormack’s job. It would be a scandal if the Nationals are stupid enough to reward Joyce — the man who brought his own government near to implosion, who threw his partner under the bus by suggesting doubt about who was the father of their baby and took all the clear air from any Coalition recovery — with his old job. Labor can only pray that those pushing this ridiculous idea are in the ascendancy.

Phelps ran a terrific campaign. She was assisted by former Labor staffer Darrin Barnett, who is no slouch when it comes to picking the right message. Her fame and personality meant she had a force on the ground even more committed than the major parties. She pushed climate change and proved it was still very much a live issue in Wentworth. Voters liked her and while at some point Wentworth will return to its Liberal home, she may delay that for some time.

At the time of writing, another surprise has political veterans scratching their heads. It would appear that a rookie candidate like Phelps failed to run any kind of postal vote campaign. The Liberals ran a thorough postal vote campaign that may yet save them from the wrath of those who voted on the day. By taking these postals two to one, Sharma is back in the race. The result will not be known for a few days yet. Didn’t somebody say something about not counting chickens?