Turnbull’s real threat is not 30 in a row; it’s 36pc

The focus on Malcolm Turnbull’s famous Newspoll declaration — that losing 30 in a row was enough to finish a prime minister — disguises the real Newspoll threat to his leadership before Christmas.

The fatal Newspoll figure is the “preferred prime minister” score when it shows the PM of the day has lost a clear lead or trails the opposition leader.

In recent history, it’s not the two-party-preferred figure in Newspoll, dissatisfaction with the leader’s performance or even the primary vote that have triggered leadership challenges — it is the moment when dominance as preferred prime minister is lost.

The past three times a prime minister has been removed by their own party, the trigger has been the PM losing a clear lead or trailing the opposition leader as preferred prime minister.

Last weekend Turnbull’s rating as preferred prime minister against Bill Shorten dropped five percentage points from 41 to 36 per cent, his lowest figure, and the closest he’s been to the Labor leader, who is on 34 per cent.

Turnbull didn’t suffer the mortal blow of falling behind Shorten for one reason: one in three voters prefer neither as PM — an uncommitted vote of 30 per cent, the highest it has been since John Howard announced a GST and trailed Kim Beazley briefly as preferred prime minister in 1998.

Shorten could pick up just one of the five percentage points Turnbull lost after weeks of chaos. Shorten and Turnbull are the least popular pair on offer as PM in Newspoll’s history, and Turnbull’s dominance over Shorten has been his polling mainstay for months.

But Turnbull’s two-point lead over Shorten is less than the poll’s margin of error and sets a Newspoll-inspired deadline before Christmas, well ahead of the 30 Newspolls in a row he nominated. That milestone is likely to arrive around the Ides of March next year.

MPs have tolerated long periods of poor primary votes, high voter dissatisfaction with leaders, and losing two-party-preferred figures.

Julia Gillard’s satisfaction went negative quickly and stayed negative. She also had a dismal primary vote, but within eight weeks of falling behind Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister in 2013 she was removed.

Kevin Rudd was removed in 2010 not when his satisfaction fell from a record high 71 per cent or after a lower two-party-preferred vote, but a week after his long dominance of Abbott as preferred prime minister ended.

When Rudd moved against Kim Beazley as Labor leader in 2006, the ALP’s two-party-preferred vote was ahead of the Coalition, its primary vote was strong and dropped below 41 per cent only once — but Beazley had been dominated by Howard as preferred PM. Rudd overtook Howard as preferred PM and won the 2007 election.

Turnbull has now led the Coalition for its longest, lowest period of primary-vote support in Newspoll history, and the slump is likely to extend for a full year with only a couple of weeks of parliamentary sittings left and Coalition support falling.

Since February, the Coalition’s primary vote has been above 36 per cent just twice — 37 per cent in March and August — and below it five times, dropping to 34 per cent last weekend.

Turnbull’s dismal run is worse than Howard’s nadir in 2001 after he introduced the GST. Abbott never had such a poor run on primary vote.

Voter dissatisfaction with Turnbull is at 58 per cent and satisfaction just 29 per cent, worse than Abbott’s scores when he was removed and back to what it was nine months ago.

So, Turnbull has survived the longest, lowest period of Coalition primary vote, he’s on the way to 30 losing Newspolls on a two-party-preferred basis, and his satisfaction has reversed from a high of 60 per cent to a dissatisfaction of 58 per cent last weekend — and still Shorten has been unable to pull the preferred prime minister trigger.