However they count it, Libs are in serious strife

The Wentworth by-election is a disaster for the Coalition and Scott Morrison.

The huge swing against the government in Malcolm Turnbull’s former eastern Sydney seat has exposed and magnified all the grave problems besetting and confronting the Liberal Party ahead of the general election.

Even a miraculous and unlikely victory out of the ashes to the Liberals’ Dave Sharma based on postal votes cannot hide the immense problems facing the Prime Minister and the government.

The Liberal Party, the Coalition and Morrison are in deep trouble — divided, conflicted over the past and future, at odds about what the swing in Wentworth means and looking to blame each other for the debacle.

Morrison’s reaction has been open, frank and as positive as he can be, absorbing the blame, as galling as that may be.

Dennis Shanahan on Scott Morrison sending Malcolm Turnbull to represent Australia at climate change meet:

He’s managing crisis after crisis, certainly not helped by Malcolm Turnbull’s reluctance to help.

MORE: https://t.co/iUBM6uH5uS #Credlin pic.twitter.com/zTeeRJO20E

— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) October 22, 2018

While the outcome is uncertain and not the sweeping victory claimed on Saturday night for independent Kerryn Phelps, it is still less likely the Liberals will win.

A close but still losing finish for Sharma only helps settle the argument over whether Turnbull should have helped his endorsed Liberal candidate, although a close but winning finish removes the immediate pressure of minority government.

As it stands, Morrison will be continuing as a minority government for at least the next sitting week and challenged to head off defeatism, internal fights, further policy panic and political desperation.

Even if Morrison can survive a no-confidence motion with the support of crossbenchers in conservative electorates and perhaps even with Phelps’s own support, his daily parliamentary survival will be a minute-by-minute proposition and subject to a shopping list of independents’ demands. The even greater challenge for Morrison will be to stop his colleagues lurching back to the Turnbull approach or going too far to accommodate the conservatives who forced the change of leadership.

There was much evidence of desperate tactics and policy switches in the final weeks of the Wentworth campaign that demonstrated uncertainty and cannot be repeated.

Every barrow-pusher in politics will claim a message or victory out of the government’s poor showing in Wentworth — from climate change, refugees, coalmining and love for Turnbull — and Morrison will be under pressure to satisfy them all.

Just as Labor can’t afford to put all its policies through the prism of western Sydney for the sake of those electorates, the Coalition can’t afford to put all its politics and policy through the prism of one seat in eastern Sydney.

Morrison has started well since taking over from Turnbull in bringing the Coalition back to dealing with everyday concerns of voters and can’t be thrown off course by Wentworth. His decision to front the loss on Saturday night and turn the defeat into a “rallying point” instead of sulking in his kitchen is a positive example of the difference between him and Turnbull.

Wentworth will be seen as a combination of the cost of removing an incumbent prime minister and Turnbull’s own revenge. With a result hanging on a few hundred votes, there is no doubt a recorded message to the voters of Wentworth could have turned the tide for Sharma. Ironically, Sharma’s primary vote is already higher than Turnbull’s was in 2004.

Phelps’s Old Testament description of her victory as being a “David and Goliath” story could turn into a New Testament story of the bringing back of Lazarus from the dead if the Liberals win.

In any case, Morrison has made it clear how important a word from Turnbull was for victory and the Lazarus, if there is a win, will be with a triple bypass — John Howard, a former Liberal leader who believes he owes the Liberal Party for his leadership.