Abbott aside, Monash Forum is a voice Turnbull can’t afford to ignore

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull may have another negative reaction coming. Picture: AAP

The formation of the Monash Forum — formalising a Coalition “ginger group” to internally lobby MPs on policy issues — is a bad sign for Malcolm Turnbull, and not just because of Tony Abbott’s endorsement.

When such a group is formed — with perhaps more than 20 MPs as supporters — it is voicing deep dissatisfaction with policy ­direction and signals internal differences on key policy issues.

What’s more, whenever any group or forum is formed it means there exists an identifiable and quantifiable group at odds with the leader, which can be used to sow division and create suspicion.

Facing crucial negotiations with the states over a national ­energy policy, and his 30th losing Newspoll survey in a row, the Prime Minister’s determination and preference for renewable-­energy solutions will be sorely tested in coming weeks. It will also test his leadership.

Obviously, any group with the former prime minister as a member and pursuing his long-held public views on promoting coal-fired power stations in Australia by extending the life of existing stations or assisting the construction of new power stations will be seen as a test for Turnbull.

But the real threat is not about the return of Abbott. Some Liberal MPs are even wary of being seen to be supporters of the Monash Forum because they can see the public political ramifications.

The real threat is that a large body of Coalition MPs, including Nationals, can see the fundamental importance of creating clear policy differences from Labor and Bill Shorten, and are not satisfied Turnbull is doing it on the crucial issue of energy prices.

Many Coalition MPs, including a former prime minister and a former deputy prime minister, ­believe the government needs to make a big decision on coal-fired power stations because “misguided green schemes” have pushed up power costs and made them the top political issue.

While Turnbull says his policy is “technology-neutral”, the government leans towards renewable energy and is prepared to put billions into the Snowy Hydro pumped-­energy scheme while distancing itself from plans to ­extend the life of existing power stations or build new ones.

This is the nub of the political problem for Turnbull; energy prices are hurting voters, there is little policy difference except tax ­between Labor and the Coalition, and Turnbull has never lost his soft-green profile.

The problem was personified in the last Coalition partyroom meeting in Canberra when coal-fired power stations were raised and Turnbull declared the government’s policy was “technology- neutral”. Abbott interjected: “What about Snowy Hydro?”

In the 1990s the Lyons Forum, which included Kevin Andrews, was vital in helping John Howard formulate family-friendly policy, become leader and successfully implement family policies. The Lyons Forum was derided as a bunch of religious fundamentalists and nicknamed the “God squad”, but its aims won through and harsh policies of John Hewson were eventually dumped.

The Monash Forum, named for Sir John Monash’s post-war creation of the Victorian electricity system based on the Latrobe Valley, will be derided as the deplorables riding again but the policy and politics underlying this latest manifestation of a lobby group need to be addressed or Turnbull will have an even bigger problem on his hands.

In 2009 he faced a similar problem, failed to deal with it and lost his leadership because he ignored voices from within his own ranks about a policy on emissions ­trading schemes — something he now says did not work.