Coalition has cause for concern

leaders net satisfaction rating

WHILE there was little good news for the government in yesterday's Newspoll, there were some worrying indicators for the opposition.

For the first time since January, Julia Gillard leads Tony Abbott on the net satisfaction ratings, albeit by a solitary point, -26 to -27. As unpopular as our Prime Minister appears to be, she has at least edged ahead of the alternative, as well as leading on the preferred-prime minister question.

The concerning news for the Coalition was the dip in primary support, down from 46 to 44 per cent, its second-lowest level all year. Compared with a Labor primary vote of just 31 per cent, at first glance the 44 per cent Coalition figure hardly seems something the Opposition Leader should fear. But that's not the comparison of note. At the 2010 poll the Coalition primary vote was 43.8 per cent and that wasn't enough to win government.

After all the failures of the current government -- and on the eve of the introduction of the carbon tax -- it is perhaps surprising that on primary votes the Coalition is only 0.2 percentage points ahead of its election result. That says it all about voter anger at the government being matched by concerns about the alternative.

We all know the bulk of preferences are likely to flow Labor's way from left-of-centre groupings, namely the Greens (who polled 14 per cent). This puts the major party grouping at roughly level pegging before considering the higher than usual number of those polled (11 per cent) registering a vote for "other". It is assumed those voters will in the main preference the Coalition, which is a fair assumption. But just as Labor needs to increase its primary support well beyond 31 per cent to become competitive at the next election, the Coalition must lift its support above 44 per cent to win.

There has been little in the polling lately to give Labor even faint hope. And yesterday's poll gave no evidence voters were warming to the government. But Labor MPs will at least take heart from the fact Abbott and the Coalition have problems of their own.